AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, November 30, 2016
***** Corn futures up 3 1/2 to 4 cents ahead of the break; soybeans higher by 7 to 10; Chicago wheat up 4. ***** 

   # Commodities are generally firmer with strength spilling over from a nearly $4 rally for crude oil futures.  Traders were gaining confidence that OPEC production freeze deal would be reached today after the Iranian oil minister inferred that such an agreement would have his country’s support.     
   # OPEC members meet in Vienna today to discuss cutting oil output by what could end up being 1 million barrels per day.  Analysts suggest that an OPEC deal quickly paves the way for $60 crude while no deal likely means $40 crude.  
   # Surging oil prices help all around, but soybeans have strength of own to note.  Bulls suggest yesterday’s move down was a simple correction from short-run overbought territory.  Monday’s high at $10.65 stands to provide resistance to the January contract, with little else in the way of significant resistance before $11.
   # Scattered showers are welcomed by farmers in Brazil after a dry 7 days across most of the country.  Dry weather is helping out this week after a very wet couple of days throughout much of Argentina.  
   # USDA currently projects big soybean crops coming out of South America with Brazil production pegged at 102 million tons and Argentina at 57 million (U.S. 2016 crop totaled 119 million tons). 
   # Today is First Notice Day for December grain futures.  No corn deliveries issued, 2 December Chi wheat contracts, 814 December KC wheat.
   # USDA issued a collection of “baseline” estimates yesterday that included a first-look at U.S. row crop acreage for 2017.  The government analysts forecast corn plantings down to 90 million from 94.5 in 2016.  Soybeans are expected to rise to 85.5 from 83.7 million acres.  All wheat down to 48.5 from 50.2 million acres.     

***** Cattle futures supported by optimism over cash potential; hogs facing technical pressure but may enjoy spillover support from higher outside markets.  *****

   # Traders are looking for cash cattle to trade up to $115 this week, which would install a robust premium over the board.  Improving beef wholesale prices continue to support ideas of demand strengthening into December.  
   # Pork prices are on the defensive as the market attempts to work through an abundant amount of offerings.  The front of the futures curve is heading lower to re-test $50 while the February contract is working toward support from its 20-day moving average.