AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Friday, December 09, 2016
***** Grains were higher to end the day/week; soybeans 10-11 higher, corn 5-6 higher, with wheat 7-9 higher. *****

   Much like the rest of the week, grain prices were reacting to the ebb and flow of Argentine weather.  Yesterday, shower activity hit the grains hard, but today, the amounts were less than beneficial, bringing some buying back into the mix.  Amid this, the trade is still fearful of the possibility of a long term drier pattern setting in. 
   Short term weather forecasts for Argentina on the drier side a beneficial as they are allowing planting to move forward better.  Traders at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange believe soybeans are 57% complete, with corn 48% complete. 
   Weather played a part in the wheat marker at week’s end with the extreme cold settling into the Midwest presenting some threat to the new wheat crop.  And the last couple of days, forecasters talked about another colder system to follow next weekend.
   The USDA s/d reports were generally non-consequential.  USDA left the corn, soybean, and wheat s/d estimates unchanged.  They did increase the biofuel use for soyoil, but offset part of that with reductions for other uses.  And, the reduced the soymeal exports slightly. 
   World production/stocks numbers for grains were raised, but mostly due to changes for output in China, and a couple of other countries.  Notably, they did raise their Brazilian corn estimate, but only brought it into line with other forecasts. But again, the changes weren’t enough to have a material impact, and China inventories aren’t readily available to the rest of the world.
   There’s still talk in the wheat trade about India’s elimination of wheat import duties.  At the same time, shipments from Ukraine are running a little behind, helping keep supplies a little tight and prices a little high.
   The forex trade is mostly focused on next week’s Fed Reserve meeting.  They are expected to raise rates for the first time since last year.  And it’s not just a change they are focused on, but what their intentions might be for future rate increases.  Stock markets gained as well, but not on any specific news.  Mostly it was buying stocks that had lagged since the election. 

***** Cattle ended $0.10-$0.17 lower; feeder cattle were $.60-$.70 lower; lean hogs were $0.72 higher to $0.57 lower. *****  

   Wholesale beef ended missed, with choice at $188.94. Cash cattle ended the week on a soft note with the recent high prices allowing packers to push coverage forward nicely. 
   Wholesale pork was narrowly mixed with the #2 cutout ending at $75.81. Cash hog prices ended lower at week’s end, but higher prices earlier in the week had stimulated marketings. Hogs, as well as cattle, are sensitive to the implications of the cold weather starting late in the weekend.