AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Thursday, January 12, 2017
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are lower to start the day; soybeans steady- 1 lower, corn 2 lower, with wheat 2-4 lower. *****

   # The USDA reports at 11 am central time will dominate the trade today.  Even the export sales will not likely have much impact with the bigger numbers coming later. 
   # The trade expects the corn crop to be revised down slightly, to near 15.200 bln. bu. production at a 175.2 bu.(-0.1) yield.  Dec. 1 corn stocks are expected to be 12.3 bln. bu., up from last year's 11.2.  Ending stocks are expected to be pared slightly to 2.378 bln. bu., mostly due to production changes.  
   # The trade is looking for the USDA to raise soybean production to 4.374 bln. bu. at a 52.7 bu(+0.2) yield. Historically there does tend to be a small 
increase in this situation, but the current numbers are so far from trend, that we aren't certain it will occur this time.  Ending stocks are expected to drop slightly to 473 mln. bu. from 480 mln. bu. The Dec. 1 stocks are expected to be 2.953 bln. bu., over 200 mln. larger than last year.   
   # For wheat, the trade is primarily going to be looking at winter wheat plantings.  The trade is looking for 34.36 mln. acres.  The expectation is 1.7 ln. under last year, mostly in HRW.  They tend to see SRW acreage down too, but we aren't certain of that because of the wheat/soybean double crop structure.  Dec. 1 wheat stocks are expected to be 2.056 bln. bu.
   # Exports sales will be noted, but quickly passed over unless there’s something wildly unexpected.  The trade is looking for: 500-800,000 tons of corn, 500-800,000 tons of soybeans, and 250-450,000 tons of wheat. 
   # Weather is the other big story for the day.  Wheat was hit yesterday, and will remain defensive today with moisture totals expected across the Southern Plains with this system; some places could see more than 1 inch.
   # Argentine weather remains a key ingredient.  The latest forecasts still hold chances of heavy rains across the waterlogged north this weekend.  Meanwhile, the southern areas remain dry.  If a drier pattern doesn’t unfold in the north, time will run out to replant some of the acres.  Most are thinking a mid-50 mmt. crop, but those could slip lower quickly if moisture doesn’t let up. 
   # There has been some discussion about Black Sea crops recently with cold weather. But, air temps didn’t get low enough in critical areas to cause any damage.  But, it’s important to note the snow cover is lacking in some areas.
   # The Dollar is under broad pressure today in the wake of President elect Trump’s news conference.  And it’s because of what he didn’t say than what he did say.  Tax cuts, nor stimulus measures were mentioned in his press conference, causing some uncertainty on the direction of his policy proposals.

***** Cattle should start the day steady/firm; lean hogs steady. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is sharply lower again with choice at $189.39.  The steep slide in wholesale prices is expected to weigh on the live market, but internet cash sales were slightly firmer Wednesday.
   # Wholesale pork was higher at $80.68. Cash hog prices should be slightly higher, especially with the midweek weather system.  A holiday shortened slaughter week may cap price strength.