AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, January 23, 2017
***** Corn futures down fractionally ahead of the morning break; soybeans off a nickel; Chicago wheat unchanged.  *****

   # Lower prices for palm oil in Malaysia and soy futures in China help to pressure the U.S. soy market this morning.  Palm oil prices slip despite data released showing strong export demand. 
   # Traders debate on what type of influences a new U.S. president will have on markets.  For the ag space, analysts are particularly watching the impact of a new government on inflation, regulation, and trade policy.  
   # Friday’s Commitments of Traders report had hedge funds paring their bearish corn bets and down to a net-short of 51,000 contracts through last Tuesday.  The soybean net-long grew to 152,000 contracts.  The managed money wheat position did not budge at a 85,000 contract net-short.
   # It was mostly a dry weekend in Argentina, which allowed some relief for farmers there with flooded soybean fields.  Analysts have suggested that up to a third of the country’s soybean crop has had damage inflicted upon it by too much moisture early in the growing season.  
   # Farmers in parts of Brazil were glad to have the rains that Argentina missed out on this weekend.  Dry conditions prevail in the eastern stretches of Brazil and could become a threat to second crop corn production if they creep west and south.  
   # NOAA’s maps call for temperatures to run about average over the next 6-10 days while precipitation falls short of normal.  The 8-14 day outlook turns a bit warmer but stays dry.  
   # Some Trump hedging helps to push the dollar lower against its major pairings this morning.  Traders in the stock market are starting the new week with a risk-off attitude.        
***** Cattle futures vulnerable to technical selling; hogs look headed for a weaker start. ***** 

   # Funds were active buyers in the cattle futures market last week and maintain a net-long of more than 100,000 contracts.  Friday’s slip allows futures to back away from overbought territory but prices remain in a clear uptrend on the charts.   
   # Hog futures open with a test of technical support after making a weaker close on Friday.  April futures find potential buying interest at their 20-day moving average and on the month’s low at $66.25.