AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, January 24, 2017
***** Corn futures unchanged ahead of the break; soybeans up 5 to 6 cents; Chicago wheat off 1 1/4 to 2.  ***** 

   # Mostly firmer grain prices on light overnight trading volume.  Fresh fundamental input is somewhat limited, so technical and outside market influences are amplified slightly.
   # The soy market does get some fundamental input from higher palm prices in Europe and Asia.  Soybeans and product prices also closed higher on China’s Dalian exchange today.  Soy prices slumping across markets abroad yesterday helped to weigh on the U.S. market.  
   # Important for the ag market this morning is news that President Trump has signed an executive order to withdraw the U.S. from Trans-Pacific Partnership talks.  The new administration could work to negotiate a fresh trade agreement with the Pacific Rim trading partners, or the U.S. could possibly be left out of a deal organized by China.   
   # Nearby corn futures are trading north of $3.70 for the first time since July.  The move puts the March above its 200-day moving average.  $3.70 is also a mark that has been said likely to trigger an additional wave of farmer selling.  
   # Traders are still talking about last week’s publishing of results from the annual Farm Futures acres survey.  The group tallied responses that indicated corn and soybean acres would both be near 90.5 million acres, down from 94 million acres in 2016 for corn and up from 83.4 million for soybeans.  
   # The dollar gains some small ground back against the other majors but falls further against the Brazilian real this morning.  Brazil’s currency firms further in 2017 as investors price in an improving economy.  The currency strength has hurt crop prices received by Brazilian producers, thus making them somewhat of a slow seller lately.    

***** Cattle futures choppy after reaching new highs; hogs face technical pressure at the start. *****

   # Cattle futures are taking pause as the pipeline starts to swell with product.  Boxed beef prices are expected to begin struggling as demand tapers off for a little while.  
   # Pork demand is also expected to back off a touch ahead of a late Easter holiday.  The new U.S. government also ushers in some worry about relations with Mexico deteriorating in a way that hurts export demand.