AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, February 01, 2017
***** Corn futures down a penny; soybeans off 2 to 2 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat down 3. *****
   # USDA will report on monthly soybean crushings after the bell today.  December crush is anticipated to run about even with the previous month’s 170.7 million bushels. 
   # Estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop continue to rise.  Phenomenal early yields have some analysts inching their predictions closer to 110 million tons versus USDA 104 mt.
   # Soybean crop potential is seen to be average, maybe a little short of average in Paraguay.  The South American country is the world’s fourth largest soybean exporter, behind the U.S. and its two neighbors.  Being landlocked, most of Paraguay’s exports are transshipped through Argentina and Uruguay.  
   # A look at recent world weather shows most all of western Europe running a touch drier than normal but not worryingly so.  Growers in Southeast Asia have benefitted from rains that have recharged soils over the past several weeks.  Australia has a surplus of moisture in the North and West, small deficits in the South and Southeast.  
   # It is an inside day so far for March corn futures after having one of those on Tuesday.  The contract is trading above its 50-day moving average at $3.57 but below its 20-day at $3.62.  The January 11 low at $3.52 provides minor support while $3.71 is major resistance.  
   # Cotton prices continue to rally as exports lag out of top-producing India at a time when demand is high.  The big buyers in China are turning to the U.S. for their needs and help to fuel the strength.  Cotton futures are up another 6 percent in 2017 and trade up 36 percent from their 2016 low.  
   # The start of February kicks off a busy month for soybean exporters in Brazil.  Traders there have a stack of commitments that may lead to a near doubling of shipments this month.  Efficient logistics in Brazil will depend on speedy resolution of the port and truck strikes that usually start popping up this time of year.      

***** Cattle futures face negativity from the fundamental and technical seller; hog futures reaching into overbought territory on the charts.  *****

   # Cattle futures will price in another negative supply report today.  After last week’s Cattle on Feed report showed placements up 18 percent on the year, this week’s inventory report showed the cattle-and-calves tally up 2 percent.      
   # Hog futures have benefitted from a resilient wholesale market, with smaller supplies of pork supporting prices.  Pork demand remains robust, but the slide for prices in the cattle market may come to weigh on the other red meat.