AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, February 14, 2017
***** Corn futures down a couple pennies; soybeans off 5 to 6 cents; Chicago wheat lower by 4 to 5. *****

   # Corn futures give up a few during a relatively active overnight session. Asian palm oil markets rebounded to give U.S. soyoil futures slight support while the rest of the complex faces pressure.  
   # Open interest for corn futures surged on Monday by more than 32,000 contracts.  Hedge funds were a small buyers, index funds were actively rolling positions from March to May, and commercials were hedging a new wave of farmer selling.     
   # NOPA crush will be reported tomorrow with the January total estimated near 159 million bushels, up from 150.5 million last year.  Soyoil stocks are expected to show a sizable increase on the month.  
   # USDA analysts in Argentina currently expect that country’s soybean crop to come in a touch short of the 55.5 million tons forecasted by their colleagues in Washington DC.  A mix of flooding in central Argentina and hot/dry conditions in the South have already curbed production potential.  
   # Chicago wheat futures take a step back this morning, in part because they are facing some technical pushback, also because of talk about the bumper crop recently put away in Australia.  
   # Mobile Weather Team reports of storms along the Gulf Coast that could have rains reaching into the southern Midwest.  Temperatures are expected to warm up quickly starting tomorrow.  
   # March soybean futures broke under Friday’s low after posting an inside day on Monday.  The current market is trading on the contract’s 20-day moving average.  Last week’s high at $10.63 1/2 serves resistance with solid support likely not found before the month’s low at $10.17.
   # Outside markets could feature a small bit of heightened volatility today as traders digest comments made from Federal Reserve Chair Yellen during her testimony before Congress.  She will answer questions about the state of the economy and will likely be quizzed on her position regarding the financial regulations that face scrutiny from the new executive administration.  

***** Cattle futures look headed for deeper correction; hogs vulnerable for a break in the uptrend. ***** 

   # Wholesale beef prices made a rebound on Monday, but expectations for a weaker cash trade this week remain.  Somewhat sluggish loadout and a tight spread between choice and select cuts point to some slippage in demand.                      
   # Hog futures may face a wave of technical selling after reversing lower at the start of the week.  Demand remains robust, but not so much that it offsets all of the negativity related to projections for rising production in the first few quarters of this year.