AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Friday, February 24, 2017
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are mixed to start the day; soybeans 3-4 higher, corn fractionally changed, with wheat 1-2 lower. *****

   # The buzz to start the day will be about the s/d forecasts from the USDA. The outside markets are generally a little weaker, having mixed implications for the grains. 
   # The discussion in the USDA s/d forecasts will surround their demand forecasts; soybeans being more robust than corn.  The net impact of the shift in acres has been muted by the demand expectations.  Soybean export demand is expected to keep the carryout at 420 mln. bu., while corn’s only declines slightly to 2.215 bln. bu. because of a more competitive world demand environment.  That’s not to say soybean’s is a positive, but it has removed some of the extreme bear talk that has surfaced this winter.
   # The basic numbers are: corn; 90 mln. planted, 170.7 bu. yield, 14.065 bln. bu. crop, and 2.215 bln. bu. ending stocks; soybeans; 88 mln. planted, 48 bu. yield, 4.18 bln. bu. crop, and a 420 mln. bu. ending stocks; wheat; 46 mln. planted, 47.1 bu. yield, 1.837 bln. bu. production, and a 905 mln. bu. ending stocks. 
   # Export sales are out this morning; generally, they were about as expected.  The totals are: soybeans 442,200 tons, corn 1.0 mmt., wheat 707,800 tons, and soymeal 230,700 tons. 
   # The USDA data seems to have shoved the other data this week to the background.  But IGC’s first look at world wheat in the new year was a little negative.  Argentina issued new crop forecasts yesterday, but the row crop forecasts were thought to be a little too optimistic. 
   # The trade is still talking about S. American weather from a positive perspective.  Generally, forecasters see light showers with some localized heavy amounts in both Arg. and Brazil, but no generally heavy rains.  But, the showers in Brazil could impede planting of 2nd crop corn, a feature that’s become an increasing worry. 
   # In the U.S., the S. Plains have become an increasing focus, especially with wheat starting to break dormancy.  Some of the forecasts are pointing toward a more inclement March after the mild Feb, so the situation may have made wheat a little more vulnerable depending on whether snow precedes any cold. 
   # The Dollar was a little lower in the overnight trade, with forex markets still responding to the Fed minutes released earlier in the week.  New home sales and consumer sentiment are slated to be released today.

***** Cattle should start the day steady/weak; lean hogs steady/slightly lower. *****  
   # Wholesale beef is higher with choice at $196.19. Cash cattle trade was active yesterday, with live at $120-$125 and dressed at $196-$200, $3-$5 higher than last week.  But, packer margins are said to be the worst since late 2015.  There’s a COF after the close, with the trade looking for marketings and placements both up near 10%. 
   # Wholesale pork was steady at $80.26. Cash hog prices will stay weak with packer margins getting pinched this week.