AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, March 29, 2017
***** Corn futures up 1 1/2 ahead of the break; soybeans up 1 1/2; Chicago wheat up 2 cents. *****

   # Grains sellers head to the sidelines after regaining favorable field position ahead of the Friday reports.  A small rebound for Malaysian palm oil and Chinese bean prices helps to support the U.S. soy complex overnight.  Quiet outside markets keep the risk-off sentiment from building further in the ag space.  
   # May corn futures are working on resistance from their 10-day moving average and from the last swing low.  System traders have been helped by the recent bearish turn for grain futures.  But, interruptions like the coming crop report can change chart indicators quickly. 
   # Last night saw good precipitation coverage for the Southern Plains states.  Up to four inches of rain fell over the driest parts of Oklahoma with most of Kansas collecting an inch or two. 
   # More showers and thunderstorms for the Southern Plains on in to the lower Midwest today.  Most of Illinois is set to get wet tonight and tomorrow.  The 6-10 day outlook leans wet before drying out during the 8-14 day timeframe.  Both outlook periods run warmer to much warmer than average.   
   # Traders will look toward today’s ethanol production report a small bit of fundamental guidance.  Ethanol grind has continued at a record pace through a first quarter of the year that usually features seasonally-soft demand.  Summer driving season is not far ahead and rising fuel consumption should help keep ethanol stocks below year-ago levels.   
   # South Africa will not have to rely on corn imports this year after the country harvests a crop that is more than 75 percent larger than last year’s drought-reduced bounty.  
   # Oil prices are getting small lift from news of production disruptions caused by resumed infighting in Libya.  Also supportive are fresh indications that OPEC is sticking to its promised output cuts.  The weekly government report on U.S. inventories is due out later in the morning and will provide the market additional guidance.  
   # Today marks Britain’s official filing for a split from the European Union.  Brexit talks will likely last for at least two years as representatives from the various parties iron out the details.   

***** Live cattle futures pressured from profit-taking near recent highs; hogs likely to benefit from light short-covering at the start.  *****

   # Cattle traders will find cue from action on the Fed Cattle Exchange today.  Cash markets still hold a premium to board as the near-term supply and demand fundamentals run relatively tight, but the deferred futures trade at a discount to reflect expectations for rising production.          
   # Traders are positioning themselves for tomorrow’s Hogs and Pigs report with expectations for the total headcount to rise by about 4 percent over last year.