AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, April 11, 2017
***** Corn futures down fractionally; soybeans down 2 1/2 cents; Chicago wheat up 4 1/2 to 6 1/4. ***** 

   # The WASDE report was, on paper, a market negative, but grain futures rebounded cleanly off their session lows.  Bearish relative to pre-report estimates were the South American production estimates.  Traders seem reluctant to want to press the short side further as we enter the U.S. planting season. 
   # Fund traders were sellers of soybeans early but some money managers stepped in to cover shorts after noon.  The fund position is estimated to be flat on the oilseed.  The corn net-short remains near 150,000 contracts; same for wheat.   
   # U.S. corn carryout was left flat after a 50 million bushel reduction to Feed and Residual was offset by a like addition to ethanol usage.  The outcome would have been viewed as friendly be it not for substantial additions made to the South American corn crops. 
   # U.S. soybean endings stocks were revised higher by 10 million bushels as a result of a 19 mbu reduction to the residual and a 10 mbu addition to Seed.  Like for corn, the market took notice of big increases for the Brazil and Argentina soybean crops.  The estimate for Brazilian soybeans was upped by 3 million tons to 111 million.  
   # Today’s numbers will be old news rather quickly as traders’ attentions turn back to weather and U.S. planting progress.  Farmers in parts of the Midwest may find a day to enter the field, but scattered showers look likely to pop up across the region throughout the rest of the week.      
   # Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued its regular update on El Nino today.  Chances of an El Nino developing in 2017 remain pegged at 50 percent.  Seven of eight models watched indicate an El Nino to be likely, but the meteorologists caution readers that the reliability of such long range readings is limited.  
   # Higher gold and defensive stock markets show the investor taking on a risk-off mentality.  Tension over the airstrike in Syria preceded the current worry over possible escalation of strain with North Korea.  The oil market is benefiting from a related injection of geopolitical risk premium. 

***** Live cattle futures jump $1.25 to $2.15; feeders up $1.95 to $2.47; hogs down $0.67 to up $0.85. ***** 

   # Cattle futures rallied as cash prices were holding up better than expected.  A strong move for boxed beef helped out with choice cuts rising $2.06, select up $5.02.  June live cattle futures had a bullish outside day and trade not far from the 1-year high at $114.20.       
   # Hogs enjoyed some spillover support from the cattle rally.  Wholesale pork was inching higher at midday to help out.  Longs were moved from April futures to the May.