AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, April 25, 2017
***** Corn futures down 2 to 3 cents; soybeans off 5 1/2; Chicago wheat lower by 2. *****

   # The U.S. market is back to taking guidance from action in Asia, with Chinese soybean futures down and Malaysian palm oil lower.  Also negative are the Crop Progress numbers that show the planting pace ahead of what was anticipated.     
   # Asian palm oil was weaker as a result of weak export data out of Malaysia.  The top-two producer reported shipments that were down 3.4 percent so far on the month.  Some buyers may be finding interest in an abundant soyoil substitute.  
   # USDA estimated corn planting progress at 17 percent versus 28 percent last year, 18 percent the five-year average.  Illinois was 34 percent planted through Sunday, Iowa 8, Missouri 46, Indiana 15.  
   # A first look at soybean planting progress estimated completion at 6 percent, or double last year and the five-year average.  
   # Winter wheat condition ratings were even with last week at 54 percent Good or Excellent and just behind last year’s 59 percent G/E.  
   # Fund traders are estimated net-short corn futures by a whopping 180,000 contracts.  The soybean short is near 30,000 contracts. 
   # Farmers in Brazil have all but wrapped up their soybean harvest and have about 15 percent of the first corn crop left to pick.  Argentine producers have cut almost 25 percent of their soybeans, 30 percent of the corn crop.
   # An inside day so far for corn futures, the July has yesterday’s high at $3.67 to contend with.  A shelf of resistance from the major moving averages hangs near $3.70.  July soybeans made a strong technical move on Monday, finally climbing above their 20-day moving average.  $9.72 1/2 provides potential pushback against buyers today.  
   # Storms are expected to pop up throughout the Midwest starting tomorrow morning.  Chances for the heavy rain totals are highest within a stretch of southeastern Missouri through central Illinois.  Showers dissipate as the day progresses Thursday and are likely to return through the weekend.  The month of May looks as if it will start off cool and damp.   
   # Former Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue was confirmed by the Senate yesterday to take the position of Agriculture Secretary.  He will take reigns of a USDA that may find its budget cut by some 20 percent.  
   # U.S. stock index futures advance with help from higher markets in Europe and Asia.  Also lending support is news that President Trump will move forward with a tax cut proposal that includes a reduction of corporate taxes to 15 percent.  

***** Cattle futures vulnerable to further profit-taking; spread unwinding likely to benefit hogs. ***** 

   # Cattle futures started the week lower as traders took to pricing in a mostly bearish set of Cattle on Feed numbers from Friday.  Overbought cattle technicals and oversold hogs also helped trigger some unwinding of the popular intermarket spread.      
   # The Cold Storage report leaned a little negative hogs with pork bellies recovering in size by 27 percent from the prior month.  Hog futures may still benefit from further short-covering sparked by overstretched technical indicators.