AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, May 03, 2017
***** Corn futures down fractionally; soybeans up fractionally; wheat down 6 to 9 cents. ***** 

   # Rains were heavy in southern Kansas last night, as advertised, but the system has not reached all the way across Missouri yet.  Flooded areas around the southern Illinois stretch of the Mississippi River will take on more rain today.  
   # Market bears point to NOAA’s 6-10 and 8-14 day maps that show the Midwest drying out in a way that allows planting to resume.  Contrary to earlier expectations, May is looking as if it is shaping up to be a cool month.   
   # A projected crest of 41 feet for the Mississippi River at St. Louis has risen another foot from yesterday morning’s forecast.  The crest at Cape Girardeau is currently projected to come on Saturday at 48.5 feet.  The record is 48.9 feet.      
   # The first day of the annual Kansas Wheat Tour found the hard red crop in varied shape, with good conditions east and freeze bit wheat in central Kansas.  Wheat is covered by snow in the western regions of the state; time will tell whether or not stems are broken or merely bent.  
   # Farmers in Brazil are still a slow seller of corn and soybeans.  The government will try to lend support by purchasing corn at auction this week.  It is also expected that tariffs could be placed on ethanol imports in an effort to protect local producers. Sluggish soybean selling in Brazil is helping to keep the back end of the U.S. export program supported.  
   # USDA’s Illinois Cash Grain Prices report listed average basis values for the central region at 25 1/2 cents under July corn futures, 41 1/2 cents under for soybeans.  The Interior Iowa averages for corn and soybeans were 44 and 77 cents under, respectively.  
   # Oil traders are trying to sort out a mix of fresh market news.  Data out of OPEC showed the cartel reducing output again last month and the latest indication is that their production cut agreement will be extended into the second half of the year – with support from Russia.  Bearish, though, is a continued stream of numbers that show U.S. and other non-OPEC producers ramping up drilling efforts.        

***** Live cattle up $0.62 to $2.92; feeders higher by $1.37 to $1.85; hogs gain $0.50 to $0.87. ***** 

   # Rising beef prices signal strong demand from the domestic consumer heading into the summer grilling season.  The market will have a cash trade today to find some additional guidance from, but listings on the Fed Cattle Exchange are light in number.  The technical trend for futures is bullish, but overbought.        
   # Hog futures should start to benefit from some unwinding of short-hog/long-cattle spreads held by the funds.  Higher cash and wholesale markets help to stir up some optimism over the fundamentals.