AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, May 08, 2017
***** Corn futures fractionally weaker at the start; soybeans down 3; Chicago wheat off 3 1/4. ***** 

   # Grains trade a touch weaker after a weekend of strong planting progress in the Western Corn Belt.  The 6-10 day forecast leans drier in a way that suggests the Eastern Corn Belt will be able to dry out.  
   # Soyoil futures are higher with support from firmer soy prices in China and better palm oil prices in Malaysia.  U.S. exporters remain optimistic over the potential for China keep the soybean trade program supported late in the season.
   # The US International Trade Commission has voted to go forward with an official investigation into the alleged dumping of biodiesel by Argentina and Indonesia.  In related news, lawmakers will soon review a bill that would extend the $1 per gallon tax credit for biodiesel producers.  
   # This week’s WASDE report will include a first look at estimates for the 2017/18 corn and soybean crops.  Predictions of trend yields for corn are 169-173 bushels per acre, 46.5-49.5 bpa for soybeans.  Those yields multiplied by a variety of acres estimates left the average production estimates at 14.068 billion bushels corn, 4.252 billion soybeans.
   # A first look at winter wheat production for 2017/18 pegs output at 1.858 billion bushels, down from last year’s 2.31 billion bushels on considerably fewer acres.  Traders won’t put a great deal of stock in the early forecast knowing that there is crucial time yet.   
   # SAFRAS analysts estimate the Brazilian producer to have sold half of this year’s soybean crop, which is well behind the average pace of 65 percent.  Producers there were more active sellers last week, but traders believe the slow pace of sales is generally supportive to U.S. export prospects.   
   # Outside financials are quiet despite the outcome of France’s presidential election, which observers generally agree to be market-friendly.   

***** Live cattle look to open lower with pressure from follow-through selling; hogs steady/weaker. ***** 

   # Cattle futures turned lower on Friday as traders decided to take profit on longs.  The fundamentals remain short-term friendly with strong beef demand keeping the packer busy.  Producers are rushing to bring cattle to market, so weights are down enough to offset the aggressive slaughter pace, keeping overall output just barely ahead of last year.
   # Hog prices are improving as futures correct from oversold technical territory and cash prices gain along with friendly seasonal expectations.  Traders are cautious to want to become overly bullish knowing that the herd is still growing.