AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, May 09, 2017
***** Corn futures up 1/2 to 1 1/2; soybeans gain 8 to 9 1/4 cents; Chicago wheat down 4. ***** 

   # Soybeans found support from more talk of late-season trade demand from China.  The top-buyer is surprising analysts once again over its consumptive potential and finds nearby offers from the U.S. to be unseasonably competitive relative to South America.   
   # Planting progress was estimated at 47 percent for corn through Sunday.  Illinois caught up to the average pace at 65 percent done, Iowa at 52, Missouri at 77, Indiana 51 percent.  Traders were surprised to see the winter wheat crop condition rating average drop by only one point to 53 percent Good or Excellent.  
   # Weather is about market-neutral right now with a wide open planting window in the West offsetting most of the worry regarding wet conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt.  Showers are expected to pop up in the Midwest again starting Wednesday and extending to Friday morning.  The government’s 6-10 day outlook leans dry but higher precipitation chances show up again on the 8-14 day map. 
   # Wheat failed to find a boost from news that Egypt’s government plans to double its grain storage capacity.  Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer, with buying decisions made by a state agency.  
   # Report day tomorrow.  Most analysts look for this year’s corn carryout to hold steady at 2.32 billion bushels.  A small reduction to soybean endings stocks would not come as a surprise with the average estimate being 438 million bushels versus 445 mbu from last month.  It is expected that soybean exports could come up slightly.  
   # The first penciling in of estimate for the 2017/18 corn crop has trend yield (something near 170 bushels per acre) multiplying by 4 million fewer acres to allow 2017/18 ending stocks to come down slightly.  Early projections have more soybean acres offsetting a dip from this year’s record yield to have next-crop carryout rising to above 550 million bushels.
   # The dollar rallied against the rest of the major currencies as traders priced in higher odds for interest rates ahead.  Oil prices dipped further on negativity related to large non-OPEC crude supplies.      

***** Live cattle down $2.60 to $2.80; feeder futures off $3.77 to $4.50; hogs flat to $0.40 higher. ***** 

   # Speculative cattle longs are liquidating in an effort to take profit after recent chart action points to a top being put in.  Fundamentally, traders are not putting very high odds on the cash market holding the mid-$140’s that were transacted last week.  Packers look close to slowing down on their pre-Memorial Day buying spree.            
   # Bullish sentiment looks to be entering the hog market as it leaves the cattle.  Like it had been for the cattle, pork prices are now rising in a way that keeps margins supported and packers busy buying.  Cash prices seem to be tracking along with expected seasonal uptrend.