AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, May 17, 2017
***** Corn futures fractionally firmer ahead of the break; soyebans up 1 to 2 cents; Chicago wheat higher by 3. ***** 

   # Grain futures trade higher within a broad but moderate overnight rally for the commodity market.  Trading volumes through the early-morning hours are more robust than they have been in several sessions.
   # Soybeans continue to find support from buyers enthused about demand.   USDA on Tuesday announced U.S. traders sold two cargoes of the oilseed to an unknown buyer, likely China.  
   # U.S. soy demand strength comes from our offers being unseasonably competitive with South American selling prices.  Farmer selling is particularly stingy in Brazil at a time when a strengthening real currency is hurting terms of trade for their exports.  The real is approaching a two-year low.  
   # Morning strength puts July soybean futures above their 50-day moving average.  The contract has not settled above that mark since March 1st.  A steady rise from the April 4 low has allowed momentum to turn up and the MACD is nearing a bullish zero-line crossover.  The $9.89 high from May report day stands to serve resistance.  
   # Soyoil futures outperform the rest of the complex this morning as the product finds support from higher Malaysian palm oil prices.  Nearby soyoil futures are up 4.4 percent from the start of the month compared to a gain of 3.6 percent for July soybeans.
   # Showers and thunderstorms developed in the Central Plains yesterday and stretched into Iowa and Wisconsin overnight.  Kansas and Nebraska look to stay wet through the weekend. Showers are expected for Illinois on Thursday and again over the weekend.        
   # The 6-10 day outlook leans wetter the Eastern Corn Belt, cool throughout the Midwest.  The 8-14 day map is also wetter east and cool throughout, but the government forecasters only assign a confidence rating of 2 out of 5 on the outlook.
   # Outside market influences center around more weakness for the dollar.  Currencies are moving about as political risks shift away from Europe and to the U.S.   

***** Cattle futures look to open weaker; hogs firmer. ***** 

   # Cattle futures are facing liquidation pressure as fund traders look for the exit, but the market maintains fundamental support that goes along with strong beef demand and packers still working to cover nearby needs.         
   # Hog futures made a bullish reversal on Tuesday to reach a new two-month high.  Key resistance for June futures comes into play from the February 8 high at $80.35.  Pork prices have inched higher so far this week but the upward cash trade has shown signs of stalling.