AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, May 19, 2017
***** Corn futures up 6 to 6 1/2 cents; soybeans take back 6 3/4 to 8 1/4; Chicago wheat up 8 1/4 to 9 1/2. *****

   # Grain futures bounced higher along with a partial recovery for the Brazilian real/dollar pairing.  Fresh news regarding the bribery allegations made against Brazil’s president was limited.  The market was back to trading weather.
   # Thursday’s drop in the real/dollar rate gave farmers in Brazil a quick price boost.  They took advantage of the move by being aggressive sellers of the new harvest.  Still, those farmers are behind a normal sales pace and have some 35-40 million tons left to bring to market.  An easier flow of beans out of Brazil may lean negative U.S. trade potential in the very near-term, but it can shrink some of the inventory in Brazil that will otherwise compete with U.S. exports in the fall.  
   # Weather leans semi-friendly the market as cool, damp conditions prevail across most of the Corn Belt and also threaten wheat in the Plains.  It looks like it will be a wet Saturday for most in the Midwest with rains coming on again mid-week next week.  Cooler than average temperatures are expected to stick around through the rest of the month.  
   # Farmers in Illinois and east are working to replant corn and thus face some delays for bean sowings.  Planting progress for the soybeans still runs ahead of the normal pace.  Farmers were 56 percent planted on soybeans by May 22nd in 2016.  
   # Conditions are nearly ideal for corn crops developing in central and southern Brazil with only light showers popping up to interrupt sunshine over the past couple of weeks.  Continued dryness and temperatures in the middle 90’s are a threat to crops throughout the northern stretches of the top-producing state of Mato Grosso. 
   # It was an inside day on the July bean chart with Thursday’s range of $9.42 3/4 - $9.72 1/2 now providing points of support and resistance.  July corn futures closed at the week’s high approaches a test from its 100-day moving average at $3.74 1/4.    
   # A softer dollar helped boost oil by more than $1 per barrel on the day.  Nearby WTI futures were trading above $50 for the first time this month.  OPEC meets next week to discuss an extension of the production cut agreement that is currently in place.  

***** Live cattle gain $0.52 to $1.40; feeders higher by $0.97 to $1.10; hogs up $0.35 to $0.90. *****

   # Cattle futures moved higher on talk that aggressive marketings are going along with dropping weights.  Sellers were hard-pressed to want to pressure the market further with futures still heavily discounted to cash that traded $134-135 this week.  The boxed beef rally did stall late in the week to blemish the otherwise rosy fundamental picture.       
   # Hogs enjoyed support from the technical buyer again this week.  The pork cutout average gained $3 over five sessions with help more help from the bellies.  Pork is finding extra demand as consumers start to push back a little against high beef prices.