AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, June 05, 2017
***** Corn up 1 1/2 at the break; soybeans higher by 1 to 2; Chicago wheat fractionally changed. ***** 

   # Grains are little changed as both the buyer and seller are active.  Traders await the weekly export inspections and Crop Progress reports today.  The weather outlook and technical influences will also lend guidance.
   # Weekend weather was better than expected with light rains scattered throughout the lower and upper stretches of the Corn Belt.  The outlook for the next 10 days has flipped from cool to warm with precipitation chances that lean mostly slim.
   # Soybean prices are likely to show some reaction to the inspections report due out later this morning.  Sales and shipments continue to impress in a way that may encourage another upward revision to the USDA’s export target for 2016.  
   # Export inspectors in Argentina plan to go on strike again this week.  A bottleneck at the ports would further slow shipments from the country after they had already been delayed by harvest interruptions due to wet weather.  Argentine corn could fill the trade pipeline at the same time that Brazil is an active exporter.   
   # The June WASDE report will be released on Friday.  Changes for U.S. yield and acres won’t be expected at this time, so most important will be U.S. demand adjustments and world production revisions for 2016.  The annual report on acreage is schedule for June 30th.  
   # Fund traders were sellers of 25,000 contracts of corn during the last reporting week.  The Commitments of Traders report showed managed money left with 201,000 contracts net-short through last Tuesday.  The net soybean short was tallied at 89,000 contracts.  
   # A minor rebound for July soybean futures puts the contract up against resistance from its 10-day moving averages.  Upside retracement targets come into play at $9.40 and $9.50.  Key support at $9 sits not far below the market.    
   # Oil futures failed to hold early gains.  Some buying interest had developed on news of political strife in the Middle East involving Qatar.  Traders are stepping into bear camp as they find it difficult to see a scenario where global supply comes down anytime soon.     

***** Cattle may enjoy follow-through buying after last week’s late rally; hogs vulnerable to further profit-taking. ***** 

   # Strong beef prices make for robust packer margins and elevated cash premiums, all which keep futures traders bullish.  Action for June live cattle will provide guidance after Friday’s options expiration.                
   # Hog futures are backing off from overbought territory, but the short-run fundamentals still lean friendly.  Pork prices are resilient, packer margins strong, and cash still enjoying a positive seasonal trade.