AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, June 06, 2017
***** Corn up 1 to 1 1/2 ahead of the break; soybeans higher by 2; wheat up 5 1/2. *****
   # Wheat futures started the overnight trade higher with corn and soybeans catching up late in the session.  Volume is light across the board. 
   # The U.S. corn crop was rated 68 percent Good or Excellent through Sunday, up three points on the week and down from 75 percent G/E last year.  Illinois was rated 59 percent G/E with other notable trouble spots being Indiana and Ohio with 46 and 49 percent G/E ratings, respectively.  
   # The soybean crop was up to 83 percent planted versus 79 percent last year.  A first set of bean condition ratings will be expected on next week’s report.
   # Wheat futures are higher in response to condition rating cuts made to both winter and spring wheat crops.  The spring wheat crop was called 55 percent G/E, down from 62 percent last week and 79 last year.  Dry conditions in the Northern Plains are shaping up to be a serious threat to the newly planted spring crop.  
   # The last run of the National Weather Service maps put some moisture back into the Midwest during the 6-10 day timeframe.  Warm and wet is the 8-14 day outlook, but forecasters tag it with a low confidence score.  
   # WASDE balance sheets are updated on Friday at 11:00 am central.  Analysts look for both corn and soybean ending stocks for 2016 to come down just slightly.
   # Another round of upward revisions for the South American crops are anticipated. Brazil and Argentina will have both enjoyed bumper corn and soybean crops this season. 
   # Soybeans are finding support from late-season export business, but most deals are being struck with trade partners other than China.  Bean bears point to weak Chinese crush margins and suggest that cancellations could be ahead. 
   # July corn futures approach a test of their 100-day moving average, currently hovering above the market at $3.74 1/2.  $3.80 remains the key mark of resistance.  MACD and RSI indicators are still positive but not yet showing any acceleration of momentum.   
   # Outside markets have a risk-off tone to them as traders wait for the central bank’s interest rate decision.  The FOMC meeting is expected to wrap up on Thursday with an affirmative vote on a quarter-point rate bump.        

***** Cattle futures up against technical resistance at the start; hogs likely to face follow-through pressure on the open. *****

   # Another round of higher prices paid for boxed beef feeds the cattle bulls at the start of the week.  Choice and select averages run a respective 11 and 9 percent higher than the year ago values.  The cash/futures premium structure also remains friendly with last week’s cash trade running $10 higher than the August live cattle contract.      
   # Hog futures are breaking lower from the uptrend that had guided prices higher since late April.  Slaughters are running high but weights are relatively light.  Demand is a positive short-run influence as pork is priced favorably to other meats in the lead up to the Father’s Day and July 4th holidays.