AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, June 08, 2017
***** Corn futures up 2 1/2 to 4 cents; soybeans higher by 7 1/2 to 9 1/4; Chicago wheat higher by 4 to 5. ***** 

   # Bearish fund traders continue to cover shorts while technical traders follow-through on corn’s breakout from the three-month range.  The new-crop corn contracts all trade above $4.
   # The forecast remains warm for the next 10 days.  Midwest temperatures will climb into the mid-90’s by Tuesday/Wednesday.  Chances for rain are pushed back into the latter part of the next week.  
   # Corn basis in the central Corn Belt has weakened on the recent board rally.  USDA’s central Illinois corn basis average was reported at 26 cents under July futures, three cents wider than it was at the start of the week. Interior Iowa corn basis was reported at 46 under.  
   # July corn futures run into their next point of chart resistance at February’s $3.93 3/4 high.  The quick shot higher may soon leave the board short-run overbought but the trend had turned positive.  
   # Brazil’s crop agency raised its corn production estimate to 93.8 million tons, but still sits under the USDA’s 96 mt forecast for the crop.  Brazil soybean output is projected by Conab at 113.9 mt versus USDA 111.6.  
   # Brazil soybean production will be a key number on Friday’s WASDE report.  Traders expect the USDA will come up on Brazil soybeans and both of Argentina’s row crops.  
   # The newswire surveys show analysts looking for small cuts to U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks for 2016.  No major changes are expected for the 2017 U.S. balance sheets as acres and yield are not usually adjusted on the June report.
   # Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports are not far ahead, being scheduled for June 30th.    
   # There are many potential market-movers to watch today.  The European Central Bank has decided to keep their economy’s main lending rate unchanged at 0%.  The U.K. is holding parliamentary elections.  Former FBI Director James Comey is testifying before the U.S. senate about Russian political interference.    

***** Live cattle look to start steady/weaker; hog futures losing momentum and are vulnerable to technical selling on the open. ***** 

   # Beef prices were not ready to budge, so cattle futures resumed their convergence with the cash market on Wednesday.  Choice and select beef cuts inched higher by another 35 and 34 cents per hundredweight and run 12 and 10 percent higher on the year, respectively.                                
   # Profit-taking on hog futures continues despite positive price action in the cash and wholesale markets.  The pork carcass cutout average was up $1.26 on the midday report.  Direct hogs in the Western Corn Belt climbed $0.82.