AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, June 09, 2017
***** Corn futures up 2 to 3 cents; soybeans up 3 1/4 to 4 1/2 *****

   # The WASDE report was somewhat of a non-event, so the weather market quickly recommenced.  July corn gained 15 cents on the week, nearby soybeans up 20 1/4, July Chicago wheat up 16 1/4.
   # No changes were made to the U.S. corn balance sheets for either 2016 or 2017.  A small reduction to old-crop carryout was expected.
   # Only change for the U.S. soybean sheets was a 15 million bushel cut to crushings that carried through in a like addition for both the 2016 and 2017 carryout estimates.  USDA analysts currently project 450 mbu to be carried out of 2016 and 495 mbu out of 2017.
   # As expected, no adjustments to yield or acres for corn and soybeans.  The July WASDE will feature revisions made with guidance from the June 30 acres report and from early crop condition observations.
   # U.S. wheat production was revised higher; most thought it would be cut slightly.  Wheat ending stocks are projected at 924 mbu in 2017/18, down from 1.159 billion last year.
   # South American production estimates were boosted by more than anticipated.  Brazil is expected to haul in a record 114 million metric ton soybean crop this season.
   # Back to weather.  It is expected to run hot and dry for the Midwest through the majority of next week.  The next significant chance for rain in the Corn Belt comes Thursday.
   # Corn futures made a notable breakout this week with the July contract now heading toward tests of resistance at $3.93 3/4 and then $4.00.  $3.79 3/4 is key short-term support.  
   # Outside market focus was on Europe this week; it will be on the U.S. next week.  The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the economy’s main lending rate by another quarter point.     

***** Live cattle finish fractionally lower; feeders moderately higher; hogs up $0.37 to $0.50. *****

   # USDA analysts made few changes to the supply and demand estimates for beef and pork.  A small reduction for beef production in 2017 was offset by larger supply in 2018 to keep year-end stocks flat.                                  
   # Hog futures are trading technicals, moving up on today as cash and wholesale markets sagged slightly.  July hogs have support from their 20-day moving average and approach the $83.52 contract high.