AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Tuesday, June 13, 2017
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are higher to start the day, with spring wheat sharply higher; soybeans are 4 higher, corn is 3 higher, with Chi wheat 5 higher, KC 8 higher, and Minn 14-15 higher. *****

   # The most notable feature the trade is talking about this morning is the steep drop again in the condition rating for spring wheat, now 45% good/excellent.  That was well below expectations, and 10 points down from last week.  The number is the lowest for spring wheat since 1988.
   # The condition rating for the other crops did not go un-noticed either.  The 66% rating for soybeans was less than the trade expected to see, and the 67% corn rating(off 1) was about as expected, but still indicated deteriorating conditions.
   # Winter wheat harvest is 17% complete, but the trade was looking for 21%.  USDA indicated the Kansas harvest is 4% done, but that could be a little generous given the scant amount of news about yields from there. Winter wheat rating increased 1 point to 50%.  Quality reports are mixed in the Plains, with protein said to be low.  Test weights are good.  Yields in the southern Corn Belt are good, with early reports of good quality too.
   # Weather is the other big element.  There are rains occurring in the N. Plains this am, but it could be too late for some of the spring wheat fields.  We have seen some of them baled for hay.  Forecasts have moisture there and parts of the western Corn Belt, with the pattern to move east toward week’s end.  Warm temps will persist into midweek.
   # Long range forecasts still point to a pattern shift.  Cool air will dominate the north central states.  Warm temps will prevail from the Central Plains west and in the South.  Moisture is expected to be above normal east, but below normal from the western Corn Belt west.  The 8-14 day has cool air spreading to the Northeast.  Southern heat will abate, but moisture remains better in the eastern Corn Belt, with normal/drier conditions in the western Corn Belt west. 
   # Weather forecasters continue to be somewhat uncertain about how the pattern in the equatorial Pacific will evolve this summer and the implications it might have for weather.
   # 80% of the exportable surplus of Argentine wheat has already been sold.  Soybean sales are said to be the worst for this time of year in 6 years.  Only 4 mmt. have been sold; typically sales have average 5.8 mmt.  Corn export sales are expected to become robust when the new crop starts to come to port.  
   # Funds were said to be moderately big sellers yesterday, especially in corn and soybeans. Activity was lighter in wheat even though prices were lower. 
   # Egypt is said to have put out a tender to buy wheat again.  Bidding and results will be watched closely with confusion regarding ergot again in the mix. 
   # Palm oil futures touched a 10 month low in Malaysia overnight. A report showed stocks were less than expected, but the trade is doubting exports will be strong enough to give prices a lift.
   # Financial and forex traders are still waiting on the outcome of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.  While there is some uncertainty, most expect the Fed to raise their interest rate 1/4 point. 

***** Cattle should start the day slightly lower; lean hogs steady. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is higher with choice at $252.52. The cash cattle trade hasn’t developed this week, and it may be hard to call.  But, the steep jump in this week’s showlists suggests prices could be weaker. 
   # Wholesale pork was slightly higher at $93.14. Packer margins are good which should support cash hog prices. They are expected to be steady/$higher today.