AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, June 22, 2017
***** Corn futures down 2 cents; soybean down 2; Chicago wheat off 7. *****

   # Grains remain in the red with better weather prospects the bearish driver.  Iowa and the upper Plains received rain overnight and much of the Midwest has rain in the forecast for tomorrow.  
   # Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border early this morning.  The path of its storms is expected to stretch north and east to reach East Coast by Saturday evening.
   # The latest run of the 6-10 day outlook shifts cool temperatures into the Northeast.  Chances for rain are higher in the top half of the Corn Belt.  The 8-14 day map calls for a wetter than normal Midwest.    
   # Wednesday’s weekly ethanol report was another disappointment.  Ethanol production was down 1.2 percent on the week and estimated corn grind was barely above 100 million bushels.  Analysts are starting to doubt that the USDA’s target of a roughly 4 percent usage gain on the year will be reached.
   # Brazil’s real currency is down hard against the dollar this week as the country’s political turmoil continues to roil.  On Wednesday the Brazilian federal police force claimed they have evidence linking President Temer to the JBS bribery scandal.
   # Egypt is tendering for wheat and will likely source their purchase from the Black Sea.  The Russian ruble has been falling sharply against the dollar this month to make grain exports from Russia attractively priced.
   # Estimates for the June 30th Grain Stocks and Acreage reports will start to circulate into the end of the week.  Analysts have the March 31 Prospective Plantings numbers of 90 million corn and 89.5 million soybeans to reference for their acres expectations.  
   # Oil futures are making a small rebound overnight to cut losses down to about $2 per barrel on the week.  A drawdown for U.S. crude stocks this week was not enough to quell worries about rising non-OPEC production.        

***** Live cattle down $0.47 to $0.85 as feeders rise $0.30 to $0.72 on Wednesday; hogs up $0.12 to $1.07 with relative strength in the front of the curve. *****

   # Cattle bears are taking charge on their expectations of rising production.  Beef prices looked to have put in something of a top and move lower in a way that threatens what remain to be robust packer margins.  Negotiated trades at $121-$123 shrink the cash premium to futures.  
   # Big gains for pork kept cash hogs supported and futures followed along higher on Wednesday.  The carcass cutout average gained $2.78 on the day behind a $5.44 jump for bellies.  August futures now approach their contract high at $82.70.