AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Friday, July 21, 2017
   ***Good Morning***

   ***** Check Corn Advice. *****

***** Grains were mostly slightly lower in the overnight trade; soybeans are 7-8 lower, corn 5-6 lower, with all of the wheat fractionally changed. *****

   # Today is going to be a battle between the high heat into the weekend and expectations of moderating temps next week.  Amid the temp change, there are some showers popping up in the Midwest.  Still, the more generally shower activity seems to be across northern Iowa/southern Minnesota/northern Ill/northern Indiana. We would expect to see some long liquidation/profit taking ahead of the weekend.
   # The longer range outlooks show warm temps persisting across the Midwest, with the 8-14 show them shifting to the northwestern Corn Belt and N. Plains. Precip will be mostly normal in the 6-10 day period, with the Southern Plains drier than normal, and the eastern Corn Belt wetter than normal. The 8-14 day outlook shows dryness in much of the western Corn Belt and into the central/northern Plains. 
   # The new 1 and 3 month weather outlooks indicates above normal temps are slated to persist across much of the Midwest, with equal changes of all three moisture conditions; above, below, and normal. 
   # The trade is talking more about corn yield potential, with many seemingly in the 165-167 range.  Informa is said to be using 166.2 bu. Their production is 13.9 bln. bu. They also lowered their HRS yield to 38.1 bu., down 2 from the recent USDA number, and put HRS output near 400 mln. bu.  
   # The Arg. Ministry of Ag. Released new production estimates yesterday.  They raised their corn forecast 2 mmt. to 49.5 mmt., but lowered their soybean estimate the same amount to 55 mmt. The Min of Ag included some states were production is all fed, hence are higher than some of the other production estimates you will see. Corn harvest has been delayed by wet conditions and is thought to only be 25% done. Yields are expected to be the highest in a decade. Soybean harvest is essentially complete.  Current estimates see Arg. wheat planting down 7% this year, partly because of the wet conditions and planting delays. 
   # Malaysian palm oil shipments have picked up.  July exports are expected to be 5-7% higher than last month. 
   # The Euro is still holding gains in the wake of this week’s ECB meeting.  The trade is looking ahead to an upcoming OPEC meeting.  Global stocks are still near record highs, but profit taking is expected to cap gains ahead of the weekend.  Equity traders are watching the earning statements that are expected to come out. Of importance to the grain markets, the Brazilian Real continues to work its way higher. 

***** Cattle should start the day mixed/lower; lean hogs steady/lower. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is slightly lower with choice at $207.65. The cash cattle trade has been mostly slow this week, but the trade is expected to be in the $1118-$120 range today. 
   # Wholesale pork is lower at $104.02. Cash hog prices will be firm for immediate delivery, but with moderating temps coming, most of the packer bids should be slightly lower today.  Packer margins remain good.  Hog numbers should begin to slowly pick up.