AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Friday, July 28, 2017
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains were mostly narrowly mixed in the overnight trade; soybeans are fractionally lower, corn fractionally, with wheat generally 1-3 higher. *****

   # Three things will dominate the trade today, weather, HRS tour results, and the forex market. 
   # Weather hasn’t changed much this week.  Milder temps will dominate the Midwest next week.  Moisture will be limited, except for the eastern and southern parts of the Corn Belt, as well as across the South.
   # The longer range 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have been consistent too.  Warm temps will be in the N. Plains and the West, with a cool dome anchored over the Midsouth/S. Plains. Elsewhere will be near normal.  The drier pattern has a tongue that reaches into the Southern Corn Belt, but eventually starts to retreat north and west.  Above normal precip is in the South, but eventually pulls into the eastern Corn Belt and to the east.
   # At the end of the tour of N. Dakota, they projected a 38.1 bu. HRS yield, down from last year’s 45.7.  That’s very close to the yield the USDA projected for N Dakota.  They implied harvested acreage would likely decline based on the number of fields baled, but didn’t offer an estimate. Harvest has started in parts of Western Minnesota, with yields being very good.  But from the central Dakotas west is where the drought took its toll.
   # The French wheat harvest is said to be 85% done vs. 37% last year, but last year’s harvest lagged to avg. pace, while this year is well ahead because of the heat speeding maturity. 
   # Ukraine’s wheat harvest is 63% done. Russian wheat is said to be of very good quality this year, with the percentage of milling quality higher than last year. 
   # The Dollar is broadly lower on the news of the failure of the Senate to repeal Obamacare.  Financial markets see that as another sign of the political gridlock that is thwarting Trump’s economic policies.  There’s some apprehension today ahead of the quarterly GDP number.  Economists are looking for a 2.6% jump in the 2nd qtr, following the anemic 1.4% growth in the 1st qtr.   

***** Cattle should start the day steady/firm; lean hogs narrowly mixed. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is slightly lower with choice at $206.43. The cash cattle trade have traded slightly lower this week with most of yesterday’s action at $117 live and $187 dressed.
   # Wholesale pork is slightly lower at $99.94. Cash hog prices were slightly higher yesterday, but should be steady at best today.  Both weights and numbers are starting to rise, albeit only slightly.  Packer margins remain good, but are deteriorating.