AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, July 31, 2017
***** Corn futures down a nickel ahead of the break; soybeans off 11 to 12 cents; Chi wheat down 2 to 4. ***** 

   # A look at weekend rain totals shows the bulk of the Corn Belt having stayed dry.  The western stretches of the Dakotas collected a few tenths to an inch over the last three days.  
   # Thursday’s next release of the Drought Monitor should show soil conditions worsening after the area affected by dryness or drought grew three points to 32.69 percent of the country. 
   # Even though still dry, the two-week forecast calls for temperatures to run much cooler than average.  Odds for rain improve throughout the lower Midwest during the 8-14 day outlook period.
   # Widespread rains last weekend and cooler temperatures last week are expected by some to lead to improved crop condition ratings for this afternoon’s Progress report.  A one point improvement may be seen for both the corn and soybean crops that were last week rated 62 and 57 percent Good/Excellent, respectively.  
   # Grain futures gapped lower on the overnight open, leaving Friday’s low of $3.86 1/2 to serve resistance to December corn.  November soybeans closed their high/low gap but trade far from Friday’s $10.13 close.  The contract’s 10-day moving average is making a bearish cross under the 20-day as momentum decelerates.  
   # Fund traders surprised by being net-buyers of corn and soybeans during the last reporting week.  The net corn long was left at 107,000 contracts, soybeans net-long 51,000, Chicago wheat net-long 28,000.
   # Soyoil losses are limited as last week’s biofuels news remains supportive.  A Washington DC court ruled that the EPA was out of bounds in earlier setting the biofuels mandate below Congress’ targets outlined by the Renewable Fuel Standard laws.  
   # Stock futures charge higher at the start of a new week.  Investors are optimistic about global growth prospects.  Friday’s GDP report fell in line with expectations, showing second-quarter growth of 2.6 percent.  

***** Cattle futures look to start steady/weaker; October hogs start with a test of support from their 200-day moving average. ***** 

   # Market sentiment has turned unfriendly for cattle and puts October futures up against a test of summer lows.  The production pace remains high at a time when demand is backing off in the usual seasonal fashion.  Cooler temperatures may help to reignite a grilling season that would otherwise be threatened by the dog days of summer.                      
   # Weaker cash and wholesale markets help to weigh on hog futures.  Pork stocks are expected to rebuild from here and may make supply the dominant influence this fall after strong demand was a highlight of the spring/summer.