AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Tuesday, August 15, 2017
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains were mostly lower in the overnight trade; soybeans are 4-6 lower, corn 4 lower, with wheat 6-8 lower. ***** 

   # Weather and crop conditions are weighing on grains today.  Last Thursday’s USDA reports remain a background negative for the markets this week to begin with.
   # The surprise in the crop ratings was the 2 point jump in the good/excellent ratings for corn.  There were big increases in the “fringe” states across the South, along with the improvement in the Dakotas with the recent rains.  Illinois’ rating went up slightly, while Iowa’s rating was lower again.  61% of the crop is in the dough stage with 16% dented, the latter slightly behind normal.  There’s still a lot of doubt the US production will reach the USDA forecast because of the drought problems that are still lingering in many areas.
   # The soybean rating was the opposite. The overall g/e rating dropped 1 point to 59%.  Like corn, the ratings improved the most in the South and in the Dakotas.  Interestingly, Illinois’ rating dropped 1 point with Iowa’s down 3.  79% of the crop is setting pods, slightly ahead of normal, and 1 point ahead of last year. 
   # Winter wheat harvest is all but over, with 97% of the harvest done.  Spring wheat harvest is proceeding fast, with 40% now complete. The condition rating jumped 1 point to 33%, with Minn/N Dakota/Idaho having the biggest improvement. 
   # The short term weather maps show potential for decent moisture in the Midwest middle/late week.  The best amounts will be in the Plains states and those across the north.  Another good band is across the southern part of the Corn Belt, but even Iowa/Cent Ill is expected to see rain.  
   # Longer range outlooks show warmth in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.  Moisture is expected across the western Corn Belt and the Great Plains in the 6-10 day outlook, moving east in the next time segment.  Even longer range outlooks show the return of cold temps. 
   # India hiked the import duty on palm oil today, doubling the crude duty to 15% and the refined duty to 25% from 15%.  Other oils are seeing duties lifted to 17.5% from 12.5%.  The move is to slow imports and shore up prices for oilseeds that recently fell below the support levels. 
   # The value of the Arg. Peso is rebounding vs the Dollar, further weighing on prices in Argentina.  Yesterday, the Peso jumped 3.3% to 17.03 to 1.  Further strengthening will only increase the call for the govt. to lower their export taxes. 
   # Russian wheat harvest is 40% complete.  All areas are expecting a record harvest.  The yield so far is 13% higher than last year. 
   # The Dollar is moving higher as well, with the tensions with N. Korea starting to subside.  Forex traders are looking ahead to retail sales data later this morning, hoping for some positive news in the wake of disappointment over Friday’s low inflation numbers.  

***** Cattle should start the day slightly lower; lean hogs steady/weak. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is slightly lower with choice at $198.82. The cash cattle trade continues to have a negative undertone, with bids expected to be steady/$2 lower again this week.  The premium cash has to futures and supply of market ready animals continue to be a downward drag, along with the weak futures. 
   # Wholesale pork is steady/lower at $94.11. Cash hog prices are expected to be steady/$1 lower with packers continuing to see plenty of hogs to choose from.