AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, September 08, 2017
***** Corn futures up 1/2 to 1 3/4 cents; soybeans higher by 1 3/4; Chicago wheat 1/2 to 1 1/2 lower. *****

   # Trading volume light in trend with the previous couple of sessions, grain futures take on a mostly firmer bias overnight.  Another down morning for the dollar looks to be lending some general support to commodities.
   # It was a mixed export sales report, disappointing in its adjustments for old-crop corn and soybean balances but positive on the 2017/18 totals.  Old-crop corn sales were reduced by 359,000 tons while 1.48 million tons were added to the new ledger.  A very similar report for soybeans, with old-crop sales down 366,000 tons and new up 1.52 million.  
   # November soybeans are making a fourth test this week of the contract’s 50-day moving average.  The 200-day is not far ahead at $9.81.  Key resistance from the $9.88 August report day high is being eyed by the bulls.     
   # Analysts remain skeptical that Illinois corn yields can hit the mark set by USDA in August.  The August estimate at 188 bushels for Illinois would be a drop of only 4.6 percent on the year.  USDA also has Iowa at 188 bpa, down 7.4 percent.  
   # Weaker is the current trend for producer basis in central Illinois as the board shows slight strength and harvest approaches.  USDA’s Cash Grain Prices report listed the region’s corn and soybean basis averages at a respective 39 cents under December and 34 1/2 cents under November futures.  The Interior Iowa basis averages were 51 cents under for corn, 60 cents under for soybeans.  
   # Hurricane Irma is soon to be on top of the Bahamas as it heads for a Florida landfall late Saturday/early Sunday.  Damage across Southern Florida may be severe as the hurricane is currently projected to remain a Category 4 storm when it reaches the coast.  
   # Weekend weather looks clear for most across the Midwest.  Remnants of Hurricane Irma may reach up into southern Illinois by Tuesday of next week.  After that, the 6-10 day is dry and cool for the Corn Belt. 
   # The dollar index faces further pressure as forex traders buy the euro and yen. The index is down to a level not seen since January 2015. Uncertainties over the U.S. debt ceiling combine with Hurricane worries and North Korea fears to keep investors generally anxious.          

***** Cattle futures look to benefit from follow-thru buying at the open; hogs face technical pressure after gapping lower on Thursday. *****

   # Nearby live cattle futures are showing resiliency as sellers see limited opportunity for a drop to $100.  The October is up against the 20-day moving average as it rebounds toward a first retracement target at $110.       
   # Hog slaughter is staying elevated while capacity is increasing.  Rebuilding supplies are not being matched by consumption as the summer season ends and exports slip.