AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, September 18, 2017
***** Corn futures down 2 to 2 1/4 cents at the break; soybeans fractionally weaker; Chicago wheat off 2. *****

   # Grains are taking on a weaker bias this morning, having quieted down after relatively active and mostly positive start for the overnight session.  Traders are sifting through harvest results from the weekend otherwise find fresh fundamental news lacking.
   # Rain is in the forecast for the Midwest over the next three days. The latest runs of the two week models show the 6-10 day running warm and wet west/dry east, the 8-14 day warm east and biased slightly wetter throughout the Midwest.  
   # Hurricane Jose is twisting off of the Carolinas as it heads toward New Jersey and New York.  Another hurricane, Maria, is strengthening in the Caribbean. 
   # December corn’s 20-day moving average is still pushing back on the contract, but it hasn’t yet give up key support from $3.50.  November soybeans are working to keep support from their 10-day moving average, one that swung up above the 20-day earlier this month on a recovery for momentum.   
   # The CFTC Commitments of Traders report surprised some by showing hedge funds having added to their net-short corn position last week, but that would have included the report day selloff on Tuesday.  The position was left at 119,000 contracts.  Money managers covered soybean shorts and left the bet net bearish at 4,000 contracts.  
   # Traders were thinking about acres last week after the analysts at Informa issued predictions calling for more corn and less soybean area in 2018.  The group’s 2017 acreage estimates are 90.66 million for corn versus 90.886 from the USDA.  Informa is among those expecting that the government will come up on its soybean acreage estimate with the private group at 90.342 million versus the USDA at 89.513. 
   # Stock index futures are pointing to higher opens for the Dow and S&P.  Monday markets as of late have been increasingly influenced by the weekend political and international goings on.  No North Korea missile launch this weekend, for example, helps to restore some confidence to investors at the beginning of the week.

***** Cattle futures look to start steady/firmer; hogs higher in a move to close chart gap. ***** 

   # Cattle futures find support from expectations that the cash market will improve this week.  Packers are looking to cover forward sales and keep slaughters moving briskly before demand tapers off in a bigger way.  
   # More of the same for hogs last week as a softer tone for cash and wholesale markets weighed on the board.  Hog futures made a technical rebound on Friday and may find follow-through strength before guidance from the cash fundamentals becomes clearer.