AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Wednesday, September 20, 2017
***Good Morning***

***** Grains were slightly higher in the overnight trade; soybeans are 3 higher, corn 1 higher, with wheat mostly 1-2 higher. ***** 

   # Overnight strength is mostly coming from some talk there could be a frost at the end of Sept/beginning of Oct.  It could nip some bushels and cause some quality problems in northern locations, but overall is not going to have a major impact on these crops.  Yield could be revised down slightly, but by the time a frost arrives, crops will mostly be too far along in the maturation process.  
   # So far from the early part of the corn harvest, we are not hearing of any significant aflatoxin problems.  There has been a little concern with the late summer dryness in some locations.
   # It’s a matter of waiting for rains to arrive in Brazil for planting to get underway.  The soy free period has expired.  But an extraordinarily dry dry-season has left many areas extremely parched.  Some think it will take 1-3 inch rains, or a good promise of having them shortly after planting to get producers to start planting. Current forecasts have rain in the picture near the end of the month.
   # The EU officially lowered the import taxes for Arg. biodiesel. The new rates are between 11 and 14.6%, down 10 percentage points from the prior levels. 
   # The new longer range weather forecasts show coolness first in the G. Plains, moving into the heart of the Corn Belt in the 8-14 day period.  Wetness is expected in the heart of the Corn Belt, but is expected to retreat to the S. Plains.  The Southeast is expected to stay warm, dry. 
   # Trading funds were said to be sellers across the grain sector yesterday; 4000 soy, 7000 corn, and 2500 wheat.  
   # The Fed Reserve meeting ends today, with the trade looking forward to commentary from them after the meeting concludes. The industry is looking for their plans to start unloading the large book of bonds they acquire during their “Quantitative Easing” years.

***** Cattle should start the day steady/firm; lean hogs slightly lower. ***** 

   # Wholesale beef is slightly lower with choice at $192.11. The prevailing thought is that cash cattle will be steady, and maybe slightly higher, when trading becomes active late week. Last week was mostly $103-$106.  
   # Wholesale pork is lower at $76.33. Cash hog prices are expected to be steady/lower behind the persistent weak wholesale market Packers are pushing chain speed aggressively, supporting hog demand for slaughter, but still find abundant supply to choose from.