AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, September 28, 2017
***** Corn futures down 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cents at the break; soybeans down a nickel; Chicago wheat off 2 1/2. ***** 
   # Grains are weaker behind an active overnight trade for soybean futures. Traders are digesting this week’s export report, one that was positive for soybeans, negative corn.  
   # New soybean sales totaled nearly 3 million tons this week against expectations closer to 2 mt.  Corn sales of 320,000 tons were less than half of the consensus prediction.  Wheat sales were near the upper end of the trade range at 436,000 tons. 
   # December corn futures started behind their 20-day moving average after retaking the support on Wednesday.  Resistance is served by Friday’s $3.56 1/4 high while $3.48 1/2 lends minor support ahead of the $3.44 1/4 contract low.  November soybeans have fallen below their 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages on this morning’s move and head toward a test of support at $9.50.
   # More talk of La Nina this week after U.S. forecasters recently issued an alert for the climate event.  La Nina would be expected to come with colder, possibly snowier, conditions in North America.  The impact on South America is mixed with northern Brazil expected to lean wetter while southern Brazil and most of Argentina could run short of normal moisture totals. 
   # Rain is falling in Mato Grosso, Brazil into the end of the week.  Parts of that top-producing state and others have been running abnormally dry over the past several months.  Dryness in Brazil has been noticed, but markets have not done much to price in any related weather premium seeing as October is the country’s usual rainy season.  Row crops are now starting to be planted in Brazil.   
   # Argentina has been too wet lately and that is a trend that may continue as heavy rains are again forecasted for many parts of the country.  Excess moisture will not help newly-planted fields of corn and will likely spell trouble for soybean plantings yet to kick off.  
   # Iowa was able to have a dry day on Wednesday and most there will be expected to enjoy an open harvest window until light showers potentially pop up again on Sunday.  Most rest of the Midwest leans dry through the next ten days.  Nearly all of the country warms up again after this weekend.  
   # Outside markets are pricing in a collection of economic data just released.  Second quarter GDP was revised up to 3.1 percent.  Jobless claims rose to 272,000 as a partial result of the recent hurricanes, as expected.  

***** Live cattle futures work to build technical momentum; hogs look to start fractionally mixed. ***** 

   # No cattle changed hands on Wednesday’s internet auction, so traders are still waiting for the cash market to develop more fully and provide guidance to futures.  The trade turns technical for now after December live cattle futures failed to fill a down gap that was opened on Tuesday.             
   # Hog futures face a test of technical resistance as the December contract approaches the $60 mark.  Traders may be cautious to take clear directional stance ahead of this afternoon’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The all-hogs-and-pigs count is expected to be 2-3 percent larger than a year ago.