AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Tuesday, October 10, 2017
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains were mixed/firm in the overnight trade; soybeans are 5 higher, corn fractionally higher, with wheat 1 lower. ***** 

   # Not much new from yesterday.  Long range weather may have shifted a little, but short term weather still looks damp across a good chunk of the Corn Belt this week.  The trade will get delayed govt. reports today, but much of the focus will still be on Thursday’s reports.  Hence, the activity could be somewhat confined.  
   # We’ve only seen 1 estimate for harvest progress, and it put soybeans 43-45% done, with corn at 27-29% done. Winter wheat planting is expected to be 45-47% complete.  Again, the report comes out tomorrow. 
   # Depends on who you poll.  Reuters puts the yield estimates for corn and soybeans at 170.1 bu. and 50 bu.  Corn is up 0.2 from last month with soybeans up 0.1 bu.  The soybean number shows an acreage increase of about 250,000.  It could be larger than that.
   # Bloomberg’s poll kept the soybean yield unchanged at 49.9 bu., with the corn yield dropping 0.1 bu. to 169.8 bu.  Bloomberg’s poll also showed a slightly larger soybean acreage increase than Reuters.
   # On their first estimate, CONAB projected a 108.3 mmt. soybean crop and a 93.6 mmt. corn crop.  The soybean number was 1.7 mmt. less than expected, with the corn about as expected. 
   # Numbers out of Argentina suggest up to 4-6 mln. hectares could be too wet to farm, along with the 1.8 mln. that are flooded.
   # Malaysian palm oil prices declined on news that stocks had risen to their highest level in 19 months, not over 2.0 mmt.
   # Rain is expected to be a modest impediment to harvest again this week, with this system somewhat wet.  The new long range outlooks are not as wet, especially the 6-10 day outlook.  The western part of the Corn Belt could be normal to dry. 
   # The weather outlook across the center/west area of Brazil continues to be on the dry side, a pattern that will continue to hinder soybean planting.  We’ve seen one outlook putting off significant rain until the beginning of November.  
   # Rains should ease the low water problems on the Miss and Ohio Rivers.  River forecasts show a 5-6 ft. rise in river levels this week. Barge freight rates continue to soften, helping shore up basis levels along the river system.
   # A Univ. of Missouri think tank sees corn plantings rising next year; soybean acres falling.  They are projecting a 93.2 mln. acre corn planting and an 86 mln. acre soybean planting. 
   # The Dollar is broadly weaker today on concern with geopolitical issues. Traders are worried N. Korea could do something to mark the anniversary of the founding of their current ruling party. U.S.-Turkey relations and the separatist movement in Spain were also mentioned. 

***** Cattle should start the day slightly higher; lean hogs mixed/weak. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is higher with choice at $198.13. Last week’s cash trade ended stronger than expected, setting the stage for higher prices again this week.  Feedlot asking prices are significantly higher. 
   # Wholesale pork is steady/firm at $73.54. Cash hog prices are expected to be steady/firm.  Packer margins are good and near term numbers are manageable.  But, supplies will continue to rise into year’s end, capping upside.