AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, October 13, 2017
***** Corn futures up 1 to 1 1/2 at the break; soybeans higher by 3 to 3 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat up 1 1/4.  ***** 

   # Soybeans are the focus of the overnight trade, trading mostly stronger to follow up Thursday’s rally.  Soy volume is significant, with traded bean contracts being almost three times that of corn. 
   # The reaction to Thursday’s crop report was mostly friendly.  Corn futures closed higher despite the USDA bringing corn yield up to 171.8 bushels per acre, a number that exceeded even the highest of pre-report trade estimates.  Soybeans jumped on yield and carryout numbers that dropped lower.
   # Delayed until this morning due to Monday’s holiday, the export sales report featured strong totals for corn and soybeans.  New corn bookings were well above the top end of trade estimates at 1.59 million tons.  Soybean sales at 1.75 mt compared to predictions of 0.9-1.2 mt.  Wheat sales were poor at 175,000 tons.
   # Ethanol production was down considerably on the week and corn usage was estimated below 100 million bushels for the first time this marketing season.   
   # Showers fell over some the dry areas of Brazil last night.  The forecast remains mostly dry until chances rise again on Monday.  Cropland across Brazil continues to suffer from deficit soil moisture and the long-range outlook does not look to provide much help.
   # China is reported to have taken in 71.45 million tons of soybeans for the year through September, which represents a 15.5 percent gain over the previous season.  
   # USDA reported yesterday afternoon on central Illinois corn basis averages that were 36 cents under December futures for corn, 44 cents under the November for soybeans.  The Interior Iowa basis averages for corn and soybeans were 48 and 81 cents, respectively.    
   # Oil futures start the morning higher as traders price in friendly comments from OPEC regarding their willingness to stick with production cut promises.  The early move up puts nearby WTI crude futures up above its major moving averages in a signal of strong technical footing. 

***** Cattle futures look to start steady/firmer; December hogs testing support from their 100-day moving average at the open. ***** 

   # Cattle futures continue to wait for guidance from the cash trade.  Expectations for a couple dollars’ worth of improvement when the market develops more fully today.  Boxed beef prices are strong and will continue to find direction from the export program.  
   # Hog slaughters are running at a record clip, yesterday estimated up more than 10 percent on the year.  Expectations for rising production continue to put a stiff headwind against the market long-term.