AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, October 16, 2017
***** Corn futures fractionally weaker ahead of the break; soybeans off 3 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat up 1 3/4. ***** 

   # Grains are mostly lower at the start of a new week.  Volume was active on the Sunday night open, but the market has since quieted down.  Harvest progress and favorable yield results should combine to remain the primary headwind this week.
   # Soybean futures face added pressure from technical sellers after last week reaching into overbought territory.  For SX17, the contract’s $9.90 1/4 low from Friday stands to serve minor support.  Last week’s $10.03 1/4 may get in the way of a move to the upside.  
   # Rains were heavy across parts of northern Illinois over the weekend with local recordings of up to four inches.  The forecast calls for dry weather through the next five days before rain chances ratchet back up starting next weekend.  The temperature bias should run mostly warmer through the rest of October.  
   # Wednesday provides a shot for rain in Brazil, but the forecast is otherwise dry for the South American country that will face increasing worry over prospects for its crops because of severe soil moisture deficits.  Dry weather was welcomed in the wet parts of Argentina over the weekend, but heavy rains could return by mid-week.  
   # Last weekend ended with an export sales report that featured strong corn and soybean totals.  The export program is working to catch up after starting slow due to extra competition from the South American shippers.  Cumulative corn export sales are off 34 percent from a year ago while soybeans are 11 percent under.
   # Fund traders did not back away from their bearish corn bets last week, having hung on to a net-short near 150,000 contracts.  The supply and demand report encouraged additional soybean buying with the money managers now net-long the oilseed by more than 60,000 contracts.  
   # The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will report on September soy crushing activities today.  Traders expect to see 138 million bushels of beans having been processed last month.  
   # Crude oil futures advance further this morning after capping off last week with a strong move up.  Market participants are reacting to indications from OPEC that suggest the cartel is willing to stick with production cuts until a bigger chunk of the global supply glut is cleared.

***** Livestock markets look to take on a steady/weaker tone at the start. ***** 

   # Cattle futures took a breather late last week after having enjoyed solid gains since putting in a bottom in mid-August.  Boxed beef is still holding strong to help the cash market keep its footing, but the premium held by December futures leaves the board vulnerable.     
   # Cash and wholesale markets were seen moving up at the end of last week, but not by enough to close the gap on hog futures.  Pork production continues to run at a historic pace and keeps buyer sentiment cautious.