AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, November 01, 2017
***** Corn futures up 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 cents; soybeans gain 5 3/4 to 7 1/4; Chicago wheat steady. *****
   # Deliveries against November soybean futures are fewer than expected to help lend some fundamental support to the board, but most of today’s board strength can be attributed to technical buying.  Fund traders were committed to protecting their bullish soy bets and worked to defend chart support at the SX17’s 200-day moving average.
   # Weekly export sales will be reported tomorrow.  Traders expect to see new corn deals fall a little short of last week’s 1.3 million tons.  Soybean sales should also have a tough time reaching a strong 2.1 mt booked last go around.  Weekly wheat sales should continue to plod along at something near 350,000 tons.  
   # Mexico is in the lead again for U.S. corn export sales this season.  Total commitments for corn delivered to our southern neighbor are so far up by 10 percent year-to-date.  Japan has not yet been a considerable buyer of U.S. corn and total commitments to that country are off 36 percent on the year.  Soybean deals with top-buyer China are currently running about 17 percent behind last year.   
   # U.S. oil inventories dropped by a bit more than expected, by 2.4 million barrels.  Gasoline and distillate stocks were also drawn down in the previous week.  Even so, crude futures slipped from early-session highs as overbought chart conditions triggered light profit-taking.
   # Another good week for ethanol production, with corn grind an estimated 107 million bushels.  An ongoing harvest makes corn readily available and low prices help ethanol production margins.  Stocks of the fuel alcohol were up 2.1 percent to make for a small negative on this week’s report.  
   # USDA estimated September soybean crush at 145 million bushels, as expected.  The total was down on the previous month but up against the 138 mbu processed in September 2016.
   # A band of storms moved up from the Delta and into the Eastern Corn Belt today.  The system is expected to stick around in the region through Friday.  Drier are the northern and southern ends of the U.S. over the next 6-10 days.  The outlook for temperatures is cooler in the Northwest, warmer in the Southeast for that timeframe.      
***** Live cattle up $0.32 to $0.97 as feeders gain $1.07 to $1.10; hogs were bear spread to put the December contract down $1.40. *****

   # Cattle futures are still catching up with last week’s cash trade, which jumped up toward $120.  Wholesale beef values were mixed on the day, the choice average up $0.95, select off $0.19.  
   # Pork cutout values continue to stay strong, the average running 5 percent higher year-on-year.  The bellies have turned lower, but ham prices are heading into the holiday season with big premiums over their year ago levels. Still, big pork supplies and overbought technicals encouraged some profit-taking during today’s trade.