AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, November 02, 2017
***** Corn futures up 1 3/4 to 2 1/4 cents; soybeans higher by 8; Chicago wheat gains 8 to 8 3/4. ***** 

   # Soybeans continue higher and wheat recovers enough to allow corn futures to tag along.  Fresh fundamental news remains limited, so technical influences are outsized.  
   # December corn futures moved back ahead of the psychologically-important $3.50 mark.  The contract cleared its 10- and 20-day moving averages but settled short of resistance from the 50-day.  It takes a settlement above $3.62 to break loose of the current trading range.  
   # January soybean futures traded above $10.00 as they bounced from the 20-day moving average and head closer to the October high at $10.13.  The October 27 low of $9.81 lends support.
   # December Chicago wheat rebounded out of oversold territory but the contract is still behind its major moving averages.  A high at $4.43 comes into play before WZ17 would reach a key September high at $4.62 3/4.
   # Exports were the day’s primary fundamental focus.  Weekly corn sales were disappointing at 32 million bushels, coming in at the low end of trade guesses.  New soybean bookings were an impressive 72 mbu, but were down a little on the week.  Wheat sales were fully anticipated at 13 mbu.
   # The weekly corn export tally was a disappointment, but that report was followed up by a big daily sales announcement, for 53 million bushels sold to Mexico.  
   # Cumulative corn sales now stand behind last year’s pace by 27 percent.  Soybean sales run short of year-to-date 2016 volume by 10 percent, wheat down by 5 percent.   
   # The analysts at Informa issued their latest yield guesses, calling corn yield 173.4 bushels per acre (USDA October 171.8 bpa) and soybean yield 49.7 bpa (USDA 49.5 bpa).  FCStone yesterday issued estimates for corn yield at 173.7 bpa and soybean yield at 49.9 bpa.  The next USDA Crop Production report is scheduled for November 9th at 11:00 am cst.
   # Outside markets were busy pricing in details of the Republican tax cut plan.  Investors are debating the influences of lowered taxes on economic growth and the fiscal deficit.    

***** Live cattle futures down $0.50 to $2.75; feeders off $1.22 to $2.42; hogs steady to $0.80 lower in the front. ***** 

   # Speculators used the session to take profits on cattle longs.  Beef prices were mixed on the day, choice up $0.86, select down $0.55.  Export sales were down about 2 percent from the prior week.      
   # Hogs were being bear spread as the nearby December adjusts toward the cash market.  Direct hogs were seen trading mostly lower while the pork carcass cutout average was up behind rebound strength for bellies.