AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, November 06, 2017
***** Corn futures up 3/4 to 1 1/4 cents; soybeans up a penny; Chicago wheat higher by 3 to 3 1/2. ***** 

   # Thursday is report day.  The government analysts will tweak production and usage estimates inside the Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) reports.  Analysts, on average, anticipate corn yield going up to 172.4 bushels per acre versus the October estimate of 171.8 bpa.  The consensus soybean yield guess is 49.3 bpa versus October at 49.5 bpa. 
   # Crop Progress numbers will be reported after the closing bell.  Corn harvest should be near three-quarters finished and behind the average pace by about 10 percent.  Soybean harvest is expected to be more than 90 percent complete through Sunday.
   # As expected, the weekend was wet for much of the Eastern Corn Belt.  Tornado activity was reported in parts of Indiana and Ohio on Sunday.  Severe storms may be in store for the Mid-South today and tomorrow while the Midwest stays dry for most of the next five days.  Temperatures for the Midwest are shown to warm up again by the 8-14 day outlook.
   # Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed hedge funds pulling money away from their bullish soybean bets.  The speculative funds are still estimated net-long the oilseed by a little more than 25,000 contracts.  They are now net-short corn by more than 200,000 contracts.
   # Friday featured a host of daily export sales announcements.  U.S. shippers will be sending 102,000 tons of corn to Mexico, 135,000 tons of corn to South Korea, and 251,000 tons of sorghum to an unknown destination (likely China).  U.S. exporters have also made a deal with Iraq for 500,000 tons of wheat.  
   # Governor Rauner has issued an order authorizing Illinois road officials to issue free permits that will allow farmers to exceed vehicle weight limits by 10 percent.  The move comes as late planting and frequent recent rain delays leave corn harvest progress behind a normal pace.
   # The dollar is flat against most major currencies this morning.  Market participants are watching the greenback closely as its recent strength threatens export potential.  A sharp move up against the Brazilian real has been a particular negative for U.S. soy trade prospects.          

***** Cattle futures look for guidance from the cash and wholesale markets at the start of a new week; hogs facing new pressure from technical sellers. ***** 

   # A recent move up for cattle futures follows from a current squeeze on uncovered packers.  Pre-holiday buying is helping to keep the beef market firm and cash values are trending higher in turn.  Friendly short-run fundamentals still have to compete against expectations for growing production in the long-run.
   # Strong export sales are helping to support pork prices.  The market looks adequately supplied for the time being, so futures are being bear spread to adjust the nearby December contract toward the cash values.