AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, November 09, 2017
***** Corn futures flat; soybeans up 1 1/4; Chicago wheat fractionally firmer. *****

   # Another quiet overnight session as traders await the 11:00 am crop report.  Market participants will first have a look at weekly grain export sales.  
   # Average trade estimates have corn yield up to 172.4 bushels per acres from the 171.8 bpa previously pegged, soybean yield down from 49.5 to 49.3 bpa.  Predictions for corn and soybean ending stocks are 2.36 billion bushels and 425 million bushels, respectively.  
   # Changes to the South American production estimates should be minor, if any are made.  USDA last guessed Brazil’s 2017/18 corn potential at 95 million tons, soybeans at 107 mt.  Argentina 42 mt corn and 57 mt soybeans.  The Chinese soybean import forecast, previously at 95 mt, will also be a feature of global balance sheet updates. 
   # It was a strong export report for corn this week with new sales totaling 2.36 million tons.  Soybean sales were solid at 1.16 mt and wheat sales were better than expected at 782,000 tons.   
   # January soybean futures are working to recapture key support from $10.  Next objectives include highs at $10.04 3/4 and $10.13.  Support is provided by most of the major moving averages, including the 10- and 20-day MAs, which are converging on one another about 10 cents below the current market.  
   # Weather is wet in the northern Midwest today and tomorrow before the bulk of the region receives rain over the weekend.  The 6-10 day forecast puts higher precipitation probabilities over the Great Lakes region.  
   # Hedge funds are carrying a small net-long soybean position into the report, something near 50,000 contracts.  The large speculators have a net corn short that totals more than 200,000 contracts and a bearish wheat bet near 100,000 contracts. 
   # Global stocks markets are mostly weaker so far today.  U.S. equity index futures are lower as investors price in growing uncertainty over the Republican tax plan.  Committees from both the House and Senate are working on tax bills and the two plans look far apart for now.  

***** Livestock futures are turning defensive on longer-term fundamental negativity and fresh technical selling. ***** 

   # Cash cattle trades have so far been booking near $124, or the lower end of last week’s range.  Packers are catching up on coverage ahead of the holiday season.  December live cattle futures have added pressure from the technical sellers as the contract breaks lower from a recent uptrend.            
   # Speculators have been seen ditching hog longs during the previous six sessions in which the market has closed lower.  The move has completed a 38 percent retracement of the rally that pulled prices higher out of September lows.