AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, November 16, 2017
***** Corn futures steady; soybeans fractionally firmer; Chicago wheat up 1 to 2 1/2 cents. ***** 

   # Export sales were on the disappointing end of expectations this week.  New corn sales totaled just short of 1 million tons, soybeans 1.1 mt, and wheat 489,000 tons. 
   # Wheat traders are watching closely the latest purchase tender from Egypt.  The top-importer is in the market for wheat just days after it was learned that old ergot fungus restrictions would be reinstated to leave exporters with higher risks of rejected shipments.  Russian shippers take a tighter grip on the world wheat trade as a result of the Egypt uncertainty.
   # More rain for the Eastern Corn Belt on Wednesday with totals locally heaviest in central Indiana.  No major changes to the outlook with Saturday showers for the ECB giving way to what looks to be a dry last half of November for most all of the Midwest.  
   # Better weather in South America has allowed planting progress to catch up there.  Brazilian farmers are thought to have nearly 70 percent of the soybean crop planted with a little more than 60 percent of their corn crop in the ground.  Soybean plantings are ramping up in Argentina and track closely with a typical pace.  A drier two-week outlook for Argentina presents some slight weather worry for the region.   
   # Wednesday’s strength pulled January soybean futures back into their Bollinger Bands in a relaxing of short-term volatility.  The contract bested Wednesday’s high overnight but trades short of resistance from most all of the major moving averages.  The 10-day has slipped under the 20-day in bearish fashion as the MACD crosses under the zero-line to indicate a negative turn for momentum.  
   # House Republicans are prepared to send their tax cut bill to vote today.  A group of GOP Senators have produced their own tax plan, but all party members may not be on board due to dissatisfaction with the depth of cuts for certain taxpayers or because the plan will likely include a provision that would address healthcare. 
   # Expectations for a passing of the House tax plan today help U.S. stock index futures in the early going.  Uncertainty over the tax issue has triggered a mini correction for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is down 1.2 percent from a record high achieved on November 8th.  Outside markets are otherwise quiet as investors wait to have a look at the weekly jobs report. 

***** Cattle futures look to open steady/firmer but face technical pushback; hogs likely to stabilize at least briefly.  ***** 

   # Cash cattle are trading $119-$121 into the back half of the week, or close to par with nearby December futures.  The trend is still softer on the previous week and a defensive wholesale market is turning fundamental sentiment somewhat bearish.       
   # The technical leanings are still negative for hog futures after Wednesday’s rebound from oversold territory.  The December contract faces resistance from its 50- and 100-day moving averages before it can reach toward a test of the week’s high at $62.92.