AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, November 22, 2017
***** Corn futures fractionally changed ahead of the break; soybeans up 4 1/2 cents; wheat a little weaker. *****

   # Grains trade a full session today before re-opening Friday morning for a market that will close at noon.  Traders are aware of a tendency for soy futures to rally on the pre- and post-Thanksgiving sessions.  
   # Soybean futures get a lift from a recharged soyoil contract.  Asian palm oil prices were firmer on Wednesday in continuation of a recovery effort for that market.  Traders are having a tougher time deciding which side of the edible oil market to be on, seeing that production levels are growing but also that the product’s demand profile remains robust. 
   # Open interest in the corn market dipped lower by another 13,000 contracts on Tuesday.  While many hedge fund shorts are rolling forward from December futures to March, others are choosing to take profits and head to the sideline.  Some traders are likely just taking positions off ahead of the holiday.  
   # December corn futures are working to establish support from the 20-day moving average, which is a technical mark that has given the contract fits over the past three month.  Resistance at the psychologically-important $3.50 level coincides with November 9 report day high.  The board has built in some room above the December’s $3.36 1/4 low.       
   # Very light evening showers scattered across Indiana and Ohio ahead what looks to be a dry second half of the week.  The 6-10 day forecast stays dry but is has turned warmer.  Rain shows back up in the 8-14 day outlook.  
   # Conditions have taken a marked turn for the better in Brazil after rains started to materialize earlier this month.  It’s early for high confidence yet, but analysts currently predict that Brazil’s soybean crop will be about 2-5 percent smaller than the last one.  
   # Oil futures are rallying this morning ahead of a weekly inventory report that should show domestic stocks having drawn down some last week.  OPEC meets next week and will discuss a probable extension of the cartel’s ongoing production cut agreement.  
   # The dollar index trades a touch weaker this morning after Fed Chair Yellen commented on disappointing inflation metrics.  Central bankers want to see inflation ticking up before they are to cut back on accommodative monetary policy measures.   

***** Cattle futures open with a test of technical resistance from the December live’s 50-day moving average; hogs look to stay defensive at the start. ***** 

   # December cattle futures are trading par with the $118 cash trade observed early this week.  Market participants are waiting to find direction from the post-Thanksgiving boxed beef trade.
   # Similarly for hogs, traders are eager to see how the pork market performs now that holiday buying is wrapping up.  Wednesday’s bearish reversal leaves the technical bias negative for futures, with last week’s $59.25 low serving as nearby downside risk.