Agrivisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, November 27, 2017
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains were narrowly mixed/lower in the overnight trade; soybeans are 1 higher, corn 1 lower, with wheat 1-3 lower. ***** 

   # Mostly the trade will start to get repositioned after going through the lighter, more volatile holiday period.  Longer term fundamental attitudes appear to be keeping the grains on the defensive, while soybeans hold firmer. 
   # Amid wheat’s weakness, the latest IGC report implies a smaller harvested wheat area in 2018.  Smaller U.S. and Russian plantings are expected to be the cornerstone of the small decline.
   # Brazil is thought to be 84% done planting soybeans. That’s a little better than last year’s 83%, and the 79% average for this date. Current moisture patterns generally are good for much of Brazil.
   # Argentina had slightly better than expected weekend rains, but the overall situation is still on the dry side, and forecasts are not as promising although showers are in the forecast.  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated soy planting is 34% done, with corn planting 35% done.  Wheat harvest is nearing 21% complete.  The Ministry of Ag in Arg. lowered their corn area forecast slightly. 10-day rain outlooks for much of Arg. are below normal. 
   # A private consultant in Brazil expects corn exports will exceed the current 30 mmt. forecast.  They could be as large as 33 mmt.  The smaller Ukraine crop has bolstered demand out of S. America.
   # The US EPA is expected to release their final guidelines on mandates for biofuels this week.
   # The latest weekly CFTC trader commitment publication was delayed until today because of the holiday.  Weekly crop progress numbers will come this afternoon as well, with the attention primarily on the winter wheat condition.  
   # US weather forecasts tend to stay warm/normal, but the shifting pattern seems to be pointing toward cooler than normal weather.  Moisture outlooks though are more promising for the S. Plains, potentially helping the crop as it heads into dormancy. 
   # The Dollar is a little softer in the early trade, including softer against the Brazilian Real and Russian Rouble, two currencies the grain trade watches.  European economic news is bolstering the Euro, but traders are wary with Merkel losing power in Germany.  Politics in the US will play a part this week, with Powell up for confirmation as the new Fed Reserve head and the plight of the proposed tax plan. 

***** Cattle should start the day higher; lean hogs slightly higher. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is higher with choice at $210.99. Strong wholesale prices are guiding the cash and futures markets higher.  Even though a few extra animals might be available, packers are thought to be not bought far ahead; hence cash could be stronger.
   # Wholesale pork is slightly higher at $82.32. Cash hog prices are expected to be steady/firm, but the steady rise in numbers, and pork output could weigh on product prices, and soon the cash hog market.  Part of the key might be whether packers increase chain speed slightly to accommodate the rising hog supply.