AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Thursday, December 14, 2017
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are quietly mixed in the overnight trade; soybeans are 4-5 lower, corn fractionally higher, with wheat 1-2 higher. ***** 

   # There isn’t a lot of significant news to work with this morning, leaving the grains set to take a lead from the results of the weekly export sales. A slightly weaker Dollar and firmer commodity space may be broadly supportive
   # The overnight soybean market was generally a little weaker with some light showers across part of Argentina keeping the market a little defensive. Dryness will dominate into the weekend, with some hot temps still stressing crops in some locations in the southern areas. 
   # The latest weather forecasts still call for a series of frontal systems to move across S. America next week, especially the drier southern areas.  Amounts are expected to range from 0.5 to 3.0 inches. 
   # There is some talk in the wheat trade today that the Russian govt. is considering a purchase program to support wheat prices at the farm level.  So far though, there’s been no timetable indicated.  World traders are talking about the Brazilian approval to buy Russian wheat, but world traders also note the freight disadvantage. 
   # Wheat export sales were the best number in the weekly report.  The 588,800 ton sale was above the range of expectations.  Soybean sales, 1.45 mmt., were mid-range.  Corn sales, 866,900 tons, were at the lower end of expectations. Soymeal sales, 455,400 tons, were exceptional too. 
   # Argentine sources report the weekend rains weren’t that beneficial, with temps getting hot in the core region.  Still forecasters want to talk up better chances of rain starting next week. 
   # NOPA will issue their monthly crush report on Friday.  The trade is looking for a number near 160 mln. bu.  The trade will be looking at the soyoil and soymeal numbers to gauge the quality of this year’s crop. 
   # The Dollar is a mostly near steady this morning, after sliding in the wake of yesterday’s Fed news story. The Euro is the weaker currency this morning, with weakness coming from ECB;s Draghi talking about rising inflation. 

***** Cattle should start the day steady/weak; Lean hogs lower. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is lower with choice at $202.48. Persistent weakness in the wholesale sector are likely to keep the cattle market on the defensive.  Bids are expected to start around $115 today. Cattle slaughter margins are not great.  There’s talk about big placements again on this month’s COF report.
   # Wholesale pork is sharply lower at $76.51. Cash hog prices are expected to start the day lower with the weak wholesale market and indications numbers are abundant.