AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, May 16, 2019
The main stories in trade this week have been weather and technicals, and today is expected to be no different. All spot contracts ran into overhead resistance yesterday and it stopped them cold. Many analysts took this as a negative sign, but flushing out weak longs will make for a stronger market when buying resumes as it did overnight. Spotty rains are forecast to finish out this week and into early next week, but long range models are indicating drier conditions will develop. Export sales this morning are expected to be higher than last week, especially on corn, which was a marketing year low. Trade will also be monitoring trade talk developments between the US and China to see if any resolution can be reached. 

• Upper Mississippi River to open by end of week
• Basis weaker even with limited selling
• 6-10 day outlook warmer and slightly drier, same as 8-14 day
• Chinese hog herd down 20.8% from year ago
• $8.52 billion paid to farmers from Chinese tariff dispute

• Long-term resistance holds
• Ethanol use remains strong
• Corn for ethanol outpacing expectations
• Export sales expected to rebound from last week
• Very little planting increase expected Monday afternoon
• Prevent planting talk is increasing

• China has booked a reported 40 Brazilian cargoes this week
• Brazil likely to be shipping soybeans to China when US harvest starts
• Brazil to export 14% fewer soybeans in 2019 than 2018
• April NOPA crush was less than expected at 160 million bu

• Wheat mostly a follower right now
• Australia did book Canadian wheat; 1st time in 12 years
• Spring wheat planting progressing better than other crops
• Global stocks are plentiful

• Void from ASF in China will need to be filled with global pork
• Rally in corn hindering feeder contracts
• Limited trade continues in live cattle
• Packer margins creeping higher, will increase bidder interest