AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, September 20, 2019
Corn, soybeans, and wheat consolidated overnight as little interest has been shown in establishing new positions in the market. There is a void of fresh fundamental news for trade to work with that is not already factored into futures which is limiting market movement. These include export interest, global weather, and trade developments with foreign buyers, including China. The market needs a fresh round of news to alter current positions. Two things that will closely be watched today are the talks between the US and China that are taking place in Washington and developments regarding President Trump’s biofuel package that has come under considerable opposition. We will continue to see interest placed on global weather as well, especially for South America to see if forecasted rains start to develop for Brazil. 

* Favorable weather to finish September
* Ethanol plants continue to idle
* US/China close to temporary trade deal
* Dry weather reported around the globe
* Early US yields highly variable
* Hearing “better than expected” in many areas
* Concerns over details of USMCA trade deal

* Ethanol production uncertainty growing
* Margins back to negative, more plants idle
* Brazil corn production growing
* High weekly exports at 57.6 mbu
* Data shows 230 mbu of US corn at risk of early frost

* Chinese buying over for now
* US/China trade meeting in Washington
* Harvest to start, bring hedge pressure
* High weekly export sales of 63.5 mbu
* US sales at 16.4% of projections, normal is 24.2%

* Australia losses from drought rising
* Australia now has frost threat on wheat
* Production in other areas off-set Australian losses
* Dry weather slows Ukraine planting
* EU raises export forecast

* Cattle on feed after the close
* Sep 1st on feed estimated 99% of year ago
* Aug placements 93.7%, marketings 98.3%
* China releases more meat from reserves
* China clears Argentina for more beef trade