E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Friday, August 23, 2019
Trade was mixed overnight with the grains posting minimal losses while soybeans were mostly steady. Consolidation continues in the market with traders showing little interest in pushing values too far in one direction. Weather is giving trade conflicting indications as even though rains have moved through the Corn Belt, conditions remain on the dry side. This is especially the case for Northern Illinois and Eastern Iowa. Trade is also closely monitoring temperatures, as cool conditions are limiting crop stress, but also slowing maturity even further. This is becoming more of a condition as normal frost dates approach. We did see China listed as a small buyer of soybeans in yesterday’s weekly report, but there are reports that this was the pricing of overruns on recent vessels, and not an actual sale given the small volume. China did not purchase any US pork last week which is also a concern for future developments. Much of what we see today will be simple pre-weekend positioning as trade digests more crop tour data and yield estimates. 

* September options expire today
* EPA waivers to be investigated
* Some MFP payments have been delayed
* US budget deficit to pass $1 trillion in 2020
* Weather mostly non-threatening
* China agrees to continue trade talks 
* Fresh news is light

* Old crop exports falling short of projections
* SAM taking US corn export business away
* Crop tours indicate lower yields
* Cool temps slow progress
* Even normal frost dates may be an issue this year

* New crop sales picking up
* Brazil providing China new crop soybeans
* China has bought 50 soy vessels in past week
* Pod counts increasing
* Cumulative sales ahead of expectations

* Demand ahead of expectations
* High values deter buyers
* Competitive with corn for feed
* US follows global market lower
* Buyers look for high quality wheat

* Cattle on feed report after close today
* US beef in cold storage at 455.1 million pounds
* US pork in cold storage at 601.8 million pounds
* 52.6 million pounds of pork bellies in storage
* US has more pork, less beef in storage than year ago