AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Futures were solidly higher again in last night’s session as funds are in full control of the market. The planting progress report was released last night and showed less planting took place than expected across the Corn Belt last week. Current weather models are a little mixed and do show some windows of opportunity for progress this week and next though. Last night’s 6-10-day model showed below normal precip for parts of the Eastern Corn Belt. Technicals also benefited trade last night as we continue to see points of resistance fall. The question more traders are asking ow is if the funds will build a long position once their shorts are exited, and more importantly, how large of a long position. 

• US planting well behind normal
• Thoughts corn stocks could decline 1 billion bu this year
• Attention starting to shift to crop quality
• Processing margins suffering from rally
• No end in sight for US/China trade dispute
• Starting to hear “overbought” in the market
• Long range weather models turning dryer

• 58% planted, 32% emerged; both behind expectations
• Corn up 20% in May so far
• Brazil corn headed to SE US market
• Higher acreage in some regions
• Many gaps on technical charts

• 29% planted, 11% emerged
• Possible 230 million bu more production from acreage shift
• China loaded out US soybeans last week
• Argentine crush -15% in 2019, Blames US/China trade issues

• Winter wheat rating drops 5%, now at 61% Good/Excellent
• Spring wheat 84% planted, 47% emerged
• EU raises wheat production forecast 11.9% from year ago
• More rain to impact wheat quality

• China struggling to control ASF
• Cash market perks up on beef
• Heavy slaughter numbers this week
• Pork demand a concern