AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, July 31, 2020
The main activity in today’s trade will be month end positioning. This will be more of a case for soybeans where the August contract goes into delivery. While much of the repositioning has already been done, there are always a few contracts left to move. What may be more of a factor for grains and oilseeds is month end positioning in the financial markets. The US dollar has dropped to its lowest level in two years and gold has rallied to its highest value in recent history, so to see a correction would not come as a surprise. This could impact commodities more than normal given the recent involvement of funds in the market. Once the calendar turns to August, we will start to see more attention on weather and how it relates to soybeans. Current weather forecasts indicate mostly favorable conditions, and as a result, we have started to see private yield estimates rise. Unless an issue develops soon, these may also be altered in the USDA WASDE reports as well. One regions of the Corn Belt that is being monitored is Western Iowa where a pocket of dry soils is being reported. This may not be enough to negate the improved conditions being seen in other areas, however. 

* FND on August contracts
* Favorable weather predicted to start August
* Trade looking forward to August 12th WASDE report
* More doubt cast over Phase 1 trade volumes
* States reporting record Covid cases
* Consumer confidence continues to decline
* Economic concerns limit fund interest in commodities
* Ethanol values under pressure
* US ethanol 14 cents under Brazil
* Steady ratings expected next Monday
* Brazil corn exports slower than normal
* Slow Safrinha harvest behind sluggish exports
* Weather focus shifting away from corn
* China adjusts daily trading limit
* Building ethanol reserves expected to limit production 
* Brazil may increase plantings by 5%
* Palm oil weakness pressures soy complex
* Farmer selling picks up
* US soy basis average 25c better than last year
* New crop demand surges
* EU crop lowered 1.5 mmt
* Mixed reports on spring crop potential
* June heat impacted crops in Dakotas
* Australia raises crop estimates
* US mills turning away deliveries 
* Chinese hog barns filling at rapid rate
* Wholesale livestock becomes mixed
* Philippines culls 39,000 chickens due to bird flu
* Weekly beef exports calendar year high at 29,500 mt
* Weekly pork sales high at 39,500 mt

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.