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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, August 14, 2020
Now that the monthly WASDE report is behind us, trade will again start to focus on day to day fundamentals. We will now start to see more attention on actual yield data as the US harvest gets underway. We have already seen corn taken out in the Deep South, but not enough to give us an accurate indication of yield. In another week or two this will be a different story as harvest will start to advance north. Not only can this increase in grain reserves impact the futures market from hedging but can also cause changes in interior basis. This will depend heavily upon what farmers do with their newly harvested bushels. The more that gets sold the weaker basis will get. We will also start to see more emphasis on weather. Not only is this for the end of the growing season in the United States, but for the start of the planting season in South America. Farmers in Brazil are getting ready to start their planting season, but the actual start may depend on soil moisture. For the most part soils have adequate moisture in Brazil, but in Argentina, it is a different story. Argentina has been suffering from drought which is not uncommon in La Nina influenced years. If we do not see near perfect weather and growing conditions to start the growing season, we will likely see production estimates scaled back. 

Highlights
* US/China trade talks tomorrow
* Relations between the two are heavily strained
* Farmers movement up on rally
* US weather turning dry
* Drought cutting Argentine wheat crop
* Coronavirus aid sign-up extended to Sep 11th 
* Record prevent plant acres noted in No Dakota
* Brazil ethanol stocks up 30% from year ago
* Outside markets become more unstable
* Flash sale trend continues
 
Corn
* China and Mexico account for 80% of export sales
* US corn loadings -14% from last year
* Lower ratings likely next week
* Chinese corn values rally
* Large carry building in US futures
 
Soybeans
* China need to buy 7 cargoes/week to meet Phase 1 
* China accounts for 57% of US sales
* US sales to China a 6-year high
* Soy meal demand is rising
* China to book 8 mmt/month through year end
 
Wheat
* Russian harvest pressure
* World Food Program buying wheat for Lebanon
* Canadian crop estimate continues to rise
* Spring harvest gaining momentum
* Farmers willing to store most of spring crop
 
Livestock
* China to auction 10,000 mt pork today
* Price of pork auction will dictate import bids
* Covid reported on Chinese seafood imports
* Weekly beef exports 11,599 mt; -13% last week
* Weekly pork exports 10,481 mt; +1.5% week ago

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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