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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
As expected, the ratings of the US corn and soybeans declined last week. Both slipped 2 points, putting national averages at 69% Good/Excellent on corn and 72% G/E on soybeans. All attention was on Iowa, where the corn rating slipped 10% and soybeans were down 8% after last week’s windstorm. These losses were countered with improvements to other regions, however. While crop ratings will remain very much a factor in price discovery as damage reports from the Western Corn Belt continue to come in, trade is showing more attention on actual field collected data as harvest gets underway in southern states. Harvest is just getting underway in the Deep South, but as it does, data will start to impact futures values. While yields in this region do not accurately indicate what we will see in the Corn Belt, they will either verify or discredit the condition reports we have been seeing. This can easily change the mindset of the entire market. Trade will also monitor how many of these newly harvested bushels make their way into the supply line and how many are stored. Buyers are already expecting to see large movement in the Western Corn Belt due to the loss of storage in Iowa and may wait for those bushels rather than push for deliveries of new crop at the start of harvest. 

Highlights
* Funds turn to buyers 
* Chinese consumers become worried over food import safety
* China to inject money into economy
* US/China claim trade progress is “as expected”
* US retail sales slow
* US oil rig count at 15 year low 
* US weather remains dry
* France suffers driest July in 60 years
* Drought continues in Argentina
* US feed deficiency to hit 130 mmt by 2025
 
Corn
* Corn rating -2% at 69% G/E
* US corn 23% dented, 24% is average
* Trade continues to debate Iowa losses
* New crop needed for blending
* China 2020/21 corn demand est 288 mmt
 
Soybeans
* US crop rating -2% at 72% G/E
* 84% of crop set pods, 79% is average
* China has 10.27 mmt soybeans booked
* China bookings highest since 2014
* July NOPA crush at 172.8 mbu
 
Wheat
* Winter wheat 93% harvested
* Spring wheat 30% harvested
* Spring wheat 70% G/E
* EU wheat production -13% from last year
* Argentine drought getting worse
 
Livestock
* Feeder cattle values firming
* Cattle slaughter under year ago, hogs above
* China total hog herd +13% in July from year ago
* China sow herd +20.3% in July from last year
* Chinese poultry production up 18% on the year

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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