AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Trade is once again moving into a time where fresh news tends to become sparse. The US crop is still in the growing stage, but we are not seeing much for weather threats that would greatly impact yields. In fact, crop ratings remain record high for this time of the year keeping buying interest at a minimum. We are starting to see harvest get underway in the Deep South, but nothing to a point where the market is reacting quite yet. The next big release of fundamental information will the September supply and demand report which may include any crop loss from Iowa which continues to be a market topic. Ahead of this we will see crop tours get underway, but the validity of these may be questioned given changes to how they need to be conducted in today’s environment. Before long we will start to see more interest on the South American production season than the US’s as planting will be getting underway in those countries within the next few weeks. We will also start to see market positioning for the September 30th stocks report as that will in effect give us our old crop ending stocks. At the time we tend to see a shift in the mindset of the market as attention shifts mostly to new crop to see if exports remain strong or start to slow, especially on soybeans. 

* Iowa acres to be re-surveyed 
* Good fringe crops may compensate to Iowa losses
* US weather again a market factor
* President Trump indicates more trade measures against China
* No RFS decision until after November election
* US dollar value continues to drop
* Ethanol margins become unstable 
* DDG values rally internally, drop at export terminals
* US feed grain demand underestimated
* Country movement rising
* Loadings remain 12.6% last year
* Production losses not a concern, yet
* France reports heavy yield loss
* World ending stocks remain adequate
* Chinese corn values continue to rally
* Basis firming in several locations
* Yearly loadings -27% from last year
* Chinese demand for US offerings to grow 21%
* Worries than new crop demand is front loaded
* US rally may slow buying interest
* Frost damage possible in SAM this week
* Drought continues to affect Argentina
* Market year exports +2% last year
* Russian crop estimates keep rising
* Winter wheat harvest pressure to lift
* Pork values mixed
* Beef values rally ahead of Labor Day
* Funds are buying hog and cattle futures
* Trade monitoring cattle weights
* Poor pasture leads to higher placements

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