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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
As expected, the condition ratings of the US corn and soybean crops declined last week. The US corn crop is now rated 64% Good/Excellent and the soybean crop is 69% G/E. For corn this was a decline of 5 points on the week. The soybean rating is down 3% on the week. These losses are the direct result of the hot, dry conditions that are affecting much of the Corn Belt. A seasonal maturity is also applying pressure to crop ratings. While trade is still interested in the crop conditions numbers, more attention is now falling on the upcoming harvest. Reports from across the Midwest claim we will see harvest activity in as few as two to three weeks. Trade is also placing more attention on the upcoming harvest than demand as well. Even with elevated demand and localized crop loss there is little chance of cutting ending stocks to a point where buyers would show concern over available inventory. This is especially the case with the approaching planting season in South America and the likelihood of large crops there, primarily in Brazil. There are some doubts over the size of the Argentine crop this year given the building La Nina and drought it tends to bring. 

Highlights
* Crop loss reports mounting
* Hot, dry conditions persist in US
* More attention on Gulf storms
* Crude rallies on supply cut
* Refiners continue to file for ethanol waivers 
* Importers raise handing costs due to Covid testing
* Some countries limiting imports due to Covid fears
* Rail movement of US grain rising
* Equity market firms on Covid vaccine hopes
* President Trump states US “does not need China” 

Corn
* US corn rating slips to 64% G/E
* Corn is 5% mature, equal to average
* Chinese July corn imports +137% from 2019
* US has record new crop sales of 480 mbu
* Corn displacing feed wheat in rations
 
Soybeans
* Soybean rating now 69% G/E
* 4% of soybeans dropping leaves
* US has 755 mbu of new crop sales
* Sales other than China remains record low
* Reports of SDS in US soybeans
 
Wheat
* Winter wheat 97% harvested
* Spring wheat 49% harvested
* Spring wheat 71% G/E
* Year to date sales +6.6% at 408 mbu
* Chinese July imports +325% from year ago
 
Livestock
* July US beef in cold storage at 439.3 mil pounds
* Beef supply was 454.5 mil pounds in 2019
* July US pork in cold storage 458.9 mil pounds
* US had 611.7 mil pounds last year
* Pork belly supply at 45.32 mil pounds, -10 mil from 2019

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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